Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction MLB Picks 8/9/24

Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are 65-49 this season and they have won three games in a row. Milwaukee is coming off of a series win against Atlanta, where they won all three games by scores of 10-0, 8-5, and 16-7. Prior to that series, the Brewers lost two out of three against the Nationals, lost two out of three against the Braves, and lost two out of three against the Marlins. Milwaukee is 6-6 in their last 12 games and they are leading the NL Central. 

The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.77 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .242 opponent batting average. The Brewers offense has scored 558 runs with a .259 batting average and a .335 on base percentage. Willy Adames is batting .252 with 20 home runs and 76 RBI’s for the Brewers this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Carson Spiers, who is 4-3 with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 57.2 innings pitched this year. Spiers has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last four starts. The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Aaron Civale, who is 2-8 with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 112.0 innings pitched this season. Civale has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last five outings. 

Why the Reds will beat the Brewers

• The Brewers have lost each of their last five games as favorites following a road win.
• The Reds have won four of their last five games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Reds have covered the run line each of their last six night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games against the Reds following a win.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Reds' last six night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Brewers' last seven games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Brewers' last five games against National League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Reds' last three road games against NL Central opponents.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Jackson Chourio has recorded a Double in three of his last four home appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Jackson Chourio has recorded at least one Single in each of the Brewers' last seven games against NL opponents.
• Jackson Chourio has scored at least one run in 10 of his last 11 home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Gary Sanchez has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five appearances.
• Rhys Hoskins has hit a home run in three of the Brewers' last five games as home favorites.
• Rhys Hoskins has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against NL opponents.
• Rhys Hoskins has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 12 appearances.
• Aaron Civale has recorded four or more strikeouts in six of his seven previous home appearances against NL Central opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Jeimer Candelario has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Reds' last four games as underdogs against the Brewers.
• Jonathan India has recorded at least one Double in each of the Reds' last four games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Santiago Espinal has recorded at least one Single in eight of his last nine appearances in night games.
• Tyler Stephenson has scored at least one run in seven of the Reds' last eight night games.
• TJ Friedl has hit a home run in each of the Reds' last two road games against NL opponents.
• Jake Fraley has recorded two or more hits in each of his last four appearances in night games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Jake Fraley has recorded three or more total bases in each of his last four appearances in night games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this series hovering right around the .500 mark over the last two weeks, but Milwaukee still holds a comfortable lead in the NL Central over the Cardinals. The Brewers are 31-21 at home this season, while the Reds are 28-28 on the road. Milwaukee is coming off of a nice sweep against the Braves and they should have momentum coming into this game, but they are starting Civale, who has been below average this year. Cincinnati is turning towards Carson Spiers, who has respectable numbers in limited action. Milwaukee is the better team, but I will not back Civale in his current form. My Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers prediction is for the Reds to win.