Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Prediction MLB Picks 8/6/24

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 42-71 this season and they have split their last six games. Miami dropped game one in this series on Monday night, but they did manage to split four games with the Braves over the weekend. Prior to that series, the Marlins split two games with the Rays and won two out of three against the Brewers. Miami is 5-5 in their last 10 games and they are last in the NL East. 

The Miami pitching staff has a 4.49 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a .254 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 411 runs with a .238 batting average and a .292 on base percentage. Jake Burger is batting .239 with 17 home runs and 47 RBI’s for the Marlins this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Nick Lodolo, who is 8-4 with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 97.0 innings pitched this year. Lodolo has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last five starts, including eight earned runs against the Cubs last time out. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Max Meyer, who is 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 26.0 innings pitched this season. Meyer has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts, but has allowed seven earned runs in his last two outings. 

Why the Marlins will beat the Reds

• The Marlins have won each of their last five games as home underdogs against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Reds have lost each of their last three games as favorites against National League opponents following a win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Reds will beat the Marlins

• The Marlins have lost eight of their last nine night games against teams that held a losing record.
• The road team has won four of the Reds' last five games.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line each of their last four night games against teams that held a losing record.
• The road team has covered the run line in four of the Reds' last five games.

Total Runs Facts

• Eleven of the Reds' last 12 games as favorites against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Marlins' last eight night games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last four night games against National League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Reds' last three games against NL East opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in each of the Marlins' last three home games against NL Central opponents.
• Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Marlins' last four games against NL Central opponents at LoanDepot Park.
• Jesus Sanchez has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Marlins' last four home games against NL Central opponents.
• Jake Burger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Nick Gordon has recorded a Single in each of his last three appearances against the Reds.
• Nick Gordon has scored a run in each of his last four appearances at LoanDepot Park.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Elly De La Cruz has hit at least one home run in each of the Reds' last three games as favorites against the Marlins.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one Double in six of the Reds' last seven night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Reds' last five games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• Jeimer Candelario has scored at least one run in eight of his nine previous appearances against the Marlins.
• Nick Lodolo has recorded six or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of his 12 previous appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a losing record.
• Santiago Espinal has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances with the Reds as favorites against NL opponents.
• Santiago Espinal has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances with the Reds as favorites.

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Cincinnati was able to get the easy win in game one of this series on Monday night and they are trying to make a last minute push into the wild card race. The Reds cannot afford to lose any games in this series, but they are just 26-27 on the road. Miami is 22-35 at home this year, but they have been .500 over their last ten games. Both of these pitchers have decent numbers on the season, but neither were very sharp in their last start. I think we could see more offense than expected in this matchup, so my Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins prediction is for this game to go over the total.