New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction MLB Picks 7/26/24

Red Sox Coming Off Bad Loss 

The Boston Red Sox are 54-47 this year and they have lost five of their last six games. Boston is coming off of a series loss against Colorado, where they lost two out of three games and allowed 20 runs in game three. Prior to that series, the Red Sox lost all three against the Dodgers, won two out of three against the Royals, and won two out of three against the Athletics. Boston is 4-7 in their last 11 games and they are third in the AL East. 

The Boston pitching staff has a 3.80 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a .242 opponent batting average. The Red Sox offense has scored 480 runs with a .257 batting average and a .324 on base percentage. Rafael Devers is batting .293 with 23 home runs and 63 RBI’s for the Red Sox this season. Boston has allowed at least seven runs in four of their last five games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for New York is Nestor Cortes, who is 4-9 with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 119.2 innings pitched this season. Cortes has allowed 11 earned runs in his last two starts (8.2 IP). The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Brayan Bello, who is 10-5 with a 5.27 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over 95.2 innings pitched this year. Bello has allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last five outings. 

Why the Yankees will beat the Red Sox

• The Red Sox have lost nine of their last 10 games at Fenway Park following a road loss.
• The Yankees have won each of their last six Friday night road games.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six home games following a road loss.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last six Friday road games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox's last five games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Yankees' last five games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Yankees' last six games at Fenway Park.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Red Sox's last six night games against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Trevor Story has recorded a Single in each of his last six appearances with the Red Sox as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Rafael Devers has scored at least one run in each of his last 10 appearances against AL East opponents at Fenway Park.
• Trevor Story has recorded a hit in each of his last eight appearances against AL East opponents.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one total base in each of his last eight appearances against AL East opponents.
• Rafael Devers has hit at least one home run in four of the Red Sox's last five games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Red Sox's last four games against AL East opponents at Fenway Park.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Aaron Judge has hit a home run in three of the Yankees' last four road games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Trevino has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six road appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Giancarlo Stanton has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 10 appearances with the Yankees as favorites against AL opponents.
• Juan Soto has scored at least one run in each of his last seven road appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one Double in three of the Yankees' last four games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• Giancarlo Stanton has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Giancarlo Stanton has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 11 appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 

These two teams come into this series in second and third in the AL East standings, but neither team is playing very well right now. Boston is coming off of two rough series against the Dodgers and Rockies, and they are just 24-25 at home. New York has struggled over the last few weeks, but they are 33-21 on the road. The top three teams in the AL East have not played well over the last couple of weeks, so this is a huge series for both teams. I don’t love this pitching matchup for either side, but Bello has been pretty bad all season. My New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox prediction is for the Yankees to get the win.