Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction MLB Picks 7/25/24

Mets Grab Another Mini Sweep Over the Yankees 

The New York Mets are 53-48 this year and they have won three games in a row. New York is coming off of a series win against the Yankees, where they won both games by scores of 3-2 and 12-3. Prior to that series, the Mets split four games with the Marlins, won two out of three against the Rockies, and swept the Nationals in three games. New York is 9-3 in their last 12 games and they are third in the NL East. 

The New York pitching staff has a 4.18 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a .235 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 493 runs with a .251 batting average and a .323 on base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .244 with 20 home runs and 53 RBI’s for the Mets this season. New York has scored at least five runs in eight of their last twelve games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Chris Sale, who is 13-3 with a 2.70 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP over 110.0 innings pitched this year. Sale has allowed one earned run in four of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Luis Severino, who is 7-3 with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 115.2 innings pitched this season. Severino has allowed two total earned runs in his last two outings (12.1 IP). 

Why the Mets will beat the Braves

• The Mets have won each of their last seven night games at Citi Field following a win.
• The Braves have lost each of their last three games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games.
• The Mets have covered the run line each of their last four night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in seven of their last 10 games as underdogs.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last three games as home underdogs.

Why the Braves will beat the Mets

• The Mets have lost eight of their last nine night games against the Braves following a win.
• The Braves have won six of their last seven games against the Mets following a loss.
• The road team has covered the run line in each of the last six games between the Braves and Mets.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line each of their last five games at Citi Field against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Ten of the Mets' last 12 home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Braves' last six games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last four games against National League opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Jeff McNeil has hit at least one home run in three of the Mets' last four night games.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one Double in four of the Mets' last five games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Luis Severino has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against NL opponents.
• Jeff McNeil has scored at least one run in seven of the Mets' last eight night games.
• J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Mets' last five games at Citi Field against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one Single in six of his last seven home appearances against the Braves after playing the previous day.
• J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances at Citi Field against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded two or more total bases in seven of his last eight appearances against NL opponents.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Marcell Ozuna has hit at least one home run in each of the Braves' last four night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Chris Sale has recorded a win in each of his last six appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Marcell Ozuna has recorded two or more RBIs in each of the Braves' last four night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Matt Olson has scored at least one run in nine of the Braves' last 10 games as road favorites against the Mets.
• Chris Sale has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Marcell Ozuna has recorded a Single in each of the Braves' last seven games as favorites against the Mets.
• Marcell Ozuna has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves' last 15 games as favorites against the Mets.
• Michael Harris has recorded at least one total base in each of his last eight appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Ozzie Albies has recorded a Double in each of the Braves' last three road games against opponents that held a winning record.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction 

Atlanta comes into this series after having some struggles over the last few weeks, and they need to figure things out before the Mets past them in the East. The Braves are 24-25 on the road, while the Mets are 26-26 at home. New York is coming off of a huge series win against the Yankees and their offense has been rolling over the last six weeks. Atlanta has had very good pitching, but their offense has been wildly inconsistent. The Braves are expected to start Sale, who has been dominant over the last few weeks. The Mets are going with Severino, who has been great in his last two outings, but was pretty bad in the two prior to that. I know the Braves have Sale on the mound, but the Mets are raking right now and I think they will find success. On the other side, the Braves should be able to scrape together some runs against Severino, so my Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets prediction is for this game to go over the total.