San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction MLB Picks 7/20/24

Guardians Continue to Lead the AL Central 

The Cleveland Guardians are 59-37 this year and they have won two of their last three games. Cleveland won game one in this series by a score of 7-0 on Friday night. Prior to this series, the Guardians lost two out of three against the Rays, lost three out of four against the Tigers, and won two out of three against the Giants. Cleveland is just 2-4 in their last six games, but they have a five game lead over Minnesota in the AL Central. 

The Cleveland pitching staff has a 3.67 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .233 opponent batting average. The Guardians offense has scored 461 runs with a .244 batting average and a .316 on base percentage. Jose Ramirez is batting .273 with 23 home runs and 79 RBI’s for the Guardians this season. Cleveland has allowed two runs or fewer in four straight games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Dylan Cease, who is 8-8 with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 115.0 innings pitched this season. Cease has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last five stats. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Gavin Williams, who is 0-1 with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over 14.1 innings pitched this year. Williams has allowed one earned run in his last 10.1 innings of work, but did allow five earned runs in his first start against the White Sox. 

Why the Guardians will beat the Padres

• The Padres have lost each of their last six games as favorites following a road loss.
• The Guardians have won each of their last three games as home underdogs.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games as home underdogs.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games.
• The Guardians have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Saturday home games.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Padres' last nine night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Guardians' last four games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Guardians' last three games as underdogs against NL West opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Padres' last three games as favorites.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Jose Ramirez has hit a home run in each of the Guardians' last three Saturday night games.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded an RBI in five of the Guardians' last six games as home underdogs against NL opponents.
• Josh Naylor has scored a run in each of his last four appearances with the Guardians as underdogs against NL West opponents.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded two or more total bases in seven of his last eight Saturday appearances.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven home appearances against NL opponents.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians' last six games against the Padres.
• Steven Kwan ranks 4th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.408) this season.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Manny Machado has hit at least one home run in three of his last five appearances against the Guardians after playing the previous day.
• Dylan Cease has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances against the Guardians.
• Xander Bogaerts has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last five appearances with his team as a favorite against the Guardians.
• Dylan Cease has recorded six or more strikeouts in 16 of his last 19 road appearances against AL Central opponents.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one Single in 14 of his last 15 appearances against AL Central opponents.
• Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with the Padres as road favorites against AL opponents.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded an RBI in each of his last four appearances against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has scored a run in each of his last four road appearances against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Luis Arraez ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.312) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cleveland Guardians rank 3rd in the league for runs allowed this season (369).
• The Cleveland Guardians rank 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (703).
• The San Diego Padres rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.260).
• The San Diego Padres rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (878).

San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction 

Cleveland hasn’t played their best baseball over the last few weeks, but they picked up a dominating win on Friday night and they continue to have a nice lead in the AL Central. The Guardians are 31-11 at home this season, while the Padres are 24-22 on the road. San Diego was playing very well a few weeks ago, but they have had some troubles and they have dropped to third in the NL West. San Diego is starting Dylan Cease, who has been decent, but hasn’t been nearly as good as expected. The Guardians are going with Williams, who has pitched very well in his last two outings. Cleveland has been one of the best home teams in the MLB this season and we are getting them at a decent price, so my San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians prediction is for Cleveland to get the win.