WTA Madrid: Marta Kostyuk vs Anastasia Potapova Prediction 4/30/2026 Today’s Tennis Picks

Marta Kostyuk faces lucky loser Anastasia Potapova in the semifinals of the 2026 Madrid Open. The match is scheduled for Thursday, April 30. Here’s our Marta Kostyuk vs Anastasia Potapova prediction. This preview will also include a Marta Kostyuk vs Anastasia Potapova pick.

Marta Kostyuk vs Anastasia Potapova Preview

Marta Kostyuk defeated the Czech 13th seed Linda Noskova to reach the Madrid Open semifinals for the first time. The match took 19 games to decide. Kostyuk produced another dominant performance to close out the match in straight sets. The first set was competitive. Kostyuk recovered from a break down to lead 5-4, and then 6-5, but failed tos erve out the set both times. Eventually, she prevailed in the tiebreak 7-1. The in-form Ukrainian did not drop a game in the second set, wrapping the victory in an hour and 29 minutes of playing time.

In the victory, Kostyuk hit 2 aces and 4 double faults. Kostyuk landed 56% of first serves in play and won 70% of first serve points (19/27). Kostyuk won 52% of second serve points (11/21) and saved one of five break points in the match. Kostyuk has not lost a set and earned victories over Yulia Putintseva, Jessica Pegula and Caty McNally before this.

Anastasia Potapova made history by becoming the first lucky loser to reach a WTA 1000 semifinal at the Madrid Open. She beat a resurgent Karolina Pliskova to book her spot in the last four. Potapova lost in qualifying to Sinja Kraus, but benefited from a lucky loser entry and has since taken out three big hitters, including World No. 2 Elena Rybakina, in that incredible last 16 showdown.

In the quarterfinal, Potapova saw off Pliskova 6-1, 6-7, 6-3 in just under two hours to progress. In the victory, Potapova hammered 10 aces and 9 double faults. She landed 62% of first serves in play and won 77% of first serve points (47/61). Potapova won 34% of second serve points (13/38) and saved four of eight break points in the match. 

Marta Kostyuk vs Anastasia Potapova Head-To-Head

Kostyuk and Potapova are tied at 2-2 in the head-to-head. Kostyuk won their last meeting, which was at the 2025 Madrid Open.

Marta Kostyuk vs Anastasia Potapova Prediction

I can’t look past Kostyuk here. Potapova is obviously coming off a history-making run in Madrid, becoming the first lucky loser to reach a semifinal since the WTA 1000 level was incepted, and it’s been a stonking run. But Kostyuk is in better form right now and for the past three weeks, and is showing poise in pressure moments. Not once in this tournament has she looked down and out. I trust Kostyuk’s consistency and edge, and I think the Ukrainian should close this out in straight sets.

Nur Said's Pick: Kostyuk in straight sets