Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction 10/5/2025 Today’s EPL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction for this English Premier League Week 7 matchup on Sunday, October 5th, at the Villa Park. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this English Premier League matchup.

Aston Villa Preview

Aston Villa has 6 points this season, with a 1-2-3 record, and are sitting in 16th place in the Premier League standings. They have a 1-1-1 home record and a 0-1-2 away record. Aston Villa is coming off a 3-1 home win against Fulham, where they had 48% possession of the ball and 9 total shots, 4 of them on target. They had 84% completed passes, and higher expected goals, with 1.11 compared to Fulham’s 0.92.

Aston Villa is scoring 0.67 goals per game, which ranks 20th in the Premier League, while allowing 1.00 goals per game, which is 8th. Matty Cash, John McGinn, Ollie Watkins, and Emi Buendía are Aston Villa’s top scorers with 1 goal each. Emi Buendía, Lucas Digne, Morgan Rogers, and Boubacar Kamara are Aston Villa’s top passers, with 1 assist each.

Burnley Preview

Burnley has 4 points this season, with a 1-4-1 record, and are sitting in 18th place in the Premier League standings. They have a 1-1-1 home record and a 0-3-0 away record. Burnley is coming off a 1-5 road loss against Manchester City, where they had 32% possession of the ball and 9 total shots, 2 of them on target. They had 82% completed passes, and lower expected goals, with 0.41 compared to Manchester City’s 2.03.

Burnley is scoring 1.00 goals per game, which ranks 14th in the Premier League, while allowing 2.17 goals per game, which is 18th. Jaidon Anthony is Burnley’s top scorer with 4 goals, followed by Maxime Esteve with 2 goals, Josh Cullen with 2 goals, and Lyle Foster with 1 goal. Jaidon Anthony, Josh Cullen, Lyle Foster, Quilindschy Hartman, and Jacob Bruun Larsen are Burnley’s top passers, with 1 assist each.

Why Aston Villa will win

·        Aston Villa has won seven of its last eight EPL day matches against promoted teams at Villa Park.

·        Aston Villa has won each of its last four EPL day matches against Burnley.

·        Aston Villa has won each of its last four EPL home matches following a league win.

·        Aston Villa has won six of its last seven EPL home matches following a league win.

·        The favorite has won 10 of Burnley’s last 11 league matches.

·        The favorite has won eight of Burnley’s last nine EPL matches.

·        The home team has won five of Burnley’s last seven league matches.

·        Burnley has lost each of its last four EPL away matches.

·        Burnley has lost six of its last seven EPL Sunday matches.

Total Points Facts

·        The ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ market has hit in four of the last five EPL matches between Aston Villa and Burnley.

·        The ‘Over 3.5 Goals’ market has hit in four of the last five EPL matches between Aston Villa and Burnley.

·        The ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ market has hit in each of Burnley’s last five league away matches.

·        The ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ market has hit in six of Burnley’s last seven league away matches.

Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction

Aston Villa is 3-0-1 in their last 4 meetings against Burnley, and over is 4-1 in their last 5 meetings.

In this Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction, Villa is coming as -170 home favorites. Aston Villa is starting to heat up after a slow start to the season, and have three consecutive wins across all competitions. On the flip side, Burnley has been bad this season, having lost four of their six games played, and I don’t trust them to do some damage on the road, especially when they have the third-worst defense in the Premier League. The value here lies with the home team, so take Aston Villa and lay the juice at home.