Wake Forest vs SMU Prediction 11/14/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

Wake Forest vs SMU Prediction

In this Wake Forest vs SMU prediction for this College Football Week 11 matchup on Saturday, November 14th, SMU is coming as -1.5 home favorites. Both teams have been excellent this season having lost only once and twice respectively and have also been excellent against the spread with a 3-1 and 7-0 ATS record in their last 4 and 7 games. Both teams also play excellent defense, as they allow just 38.8 points per game combined this season and as a result, they are 8-5 to the under in their last 13 games combined. In their previous meeting last season they combined for just 25 total points, so take the under 60.5 in this one.

SMU Mustangs Preview

SMU has a 7-2 record and a 5-2 conference record, sitting on the 4th place of the ACC, while having a 6-0 home record and a 1-2 away record. They are coming off a 51-28 home win against Virginia Tech, following a 27-30 road loss against Syracuse and a 59-20 home win against California, and will face Notre Dame and Stanford next.

Offensively, SMU averages 37 points per game, while defensively, they allow 22.9 points per game. SMU averages 475.8 total yards per game (321.6 passing and 154.2 rushing), while allowing 319.8 total yards per game (125.9 rushing and 193.9 passing). They average 68.6 plays per game and 6.9 yards per play on offense, while allowing 63.6 plays per game and 5 yards per play on defense. SMU averages 24.9 first downs per game on offense and 17.2 first downs per game on defense. They average 9.6 yards per pass attempt and 4.4 yards per rush attempt. SMU has scored 43 touchdowns this season (27 passing and 16 rushing). They are converting 47.75% of their third downs and 68.75% of their fourth downs. They have thrown 6 interceptions this season, while their defense has intercepted 3 passes.

Kevin Jennings leads SMU with 2,764 passing yards with 73.9% completed passes and 25 touchdowns. Kendrick Raphael leads the team in rushing yards with 755, while Yamir Knight has a team-high 626 receiving yards and 50 receptions. Defensively, Alexander Kilgore has a team-high 51 total tackles (26 of them solo), while Marques White leads the team with 7.5 sacks.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons Preview

Wake Forest has an 8-1 record and a 5-1 conference record, sitting on the 1st place of the ACC, while having a 4-1 home record and a 4-0 away record. They are coming off a 77-0 home win against Merrimack, following a 51-7 home win against Virginia and a 41-7 road win against California, and will face Georgia Tech and Duke next.

Offensively, Wake Forest averages 43.3 points per game, while defensively, they allow 15.9 points per game. Wake Forest averages 487.7 total yards per game (311.9 passing and 175.8 rushing), while allowing 310 total yards per game (85 rushing and 225 passing). They average 65.6 plays per game and 7.4 yards per play on offense, while allowing 69.9 plays per game and 4.4 yards per play on defense. Wake Forest averages 24 first downs per game on offense and 19.3 first downs per game on defense. They average 10.4 yards per pass attempt and 4.9 yards per rush attempt. Wake Forest has scored 50 touchdowns this season (22 passing and 26 rushing). They are converting 51.38% of their third downs and 69.23% of their fourth downs. They have thrown 1 interception this season, while their defense has intercepted 5 passes.

Gio Lopez leads Wake Forest with 2,176 passing yards with 67.1% completed passes and 18 touchdowns. Ty Clark III leads the team in rushing yards with 416, while Carlos Hernandez has a team-high 945 receiving yards and 61 receptions. Defensively, Vincent Firenze has a team-high 53 total tackles (20 of them solo), while Langston Hardy leads the team with 5.5 sacks.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ SMU Mustangs Betting Trends: Week 11

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• SMU has won each of its last 10 games at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
• Wake Forest has lost 14 of its last 15 November games as an underdog.
• SMU has covered the spread in seven of its last eight November games at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
• The team ranked 11th in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games.
• Wake Forest has lost the first half in six of its last seven road games in November.

Why the Wake Forest Demon Deacons will win

• Wake Forest has won nine of its last 10 games.
• SMU has lost 27 of its last 36 games against AP-ranked teams.
• Wake Forest has covered the spread in each of its last six games against conference opponents.
• The team ranked 25th in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in 16 of its last 20 games.
• Wake Forest has won the first half in each of its last five games as a top-15 AP-ranked team.

Total Points Facts

• Each of SMU’s last four home games against top-15 AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Wake Forest’s last four games in November have gone OVER the total points line.

SMU Mustangs Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 11, Kevin Jennings ranks T4th amongst FBS players for passing touchdowns (25) this season.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 11, Gio Lopez ranks 2nd in the league for TD:INT ratio (18.00) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• SMU ranks T8th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (10.6).
• SMU ranks 10th among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (18.6).
• Wake Forest has averaged 64.0 points over its last two games – most in the FBS over that span.
• Wake Forest ranks T3rd among FBS teams for H1 points per game this season (24.2).

Nick Lagouretos's Pick: Under 60.5