Toledo vs Sacramento State Prediction 11/4/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

Toledo vs Sacramento State Prediction

In this Toledo vs Sacramento State prediction, Toledo is coming as -24.5 road favorites. Toledo has been the superior team this season and has been in excellent form, with a 6-1 record in its last 6 games, while on the other hand, Sacramento State has been terrible this season and is 1-6 in its last 7 games and 1-4 against the spread. They also have the country’s 4th-worst offense and will be up against Toledo’s 15th-best offense, who is scoring 20.4 points per game more. The Line is big, but Sacramento’s State last two home defeats have been by 41 and 29 points, so I expect another blowout loss against a far better Toledo team. Take Toledo and lay the -24.5 points on the road in this one.

Sacramento State Hornets Preview

Sacramento State has a 2-7 record and a 1-5 record in the MAC. They are coming off a 31-10 home win against Kent State and will face Central Michigan and Hawaii next.

Offensively, Sacramento State averages 17 points per game, ranking 133rd in the nation, while defensively, they allow 30.3 points per game, which is 108th. Sacramento State averages 295.9 total yards per game (188.3 passing and 107.6 rushing), while allowing 363.8 total yards per game (167.7 rushing and 196.1 passing). They average 64.6 plays per game and 4.6 yards per play on offense, while allowing 61.1 plays per game and 6.0 yards per play on defense. Sacramento State averages 17.4 first downs per game on offense and 19.7 first downs per game on defense. They have turned the ball over 1.7 times per game and are forcing 1.1 turnovers per game.

Jackson Sharman leads Sacramento State with 1,363 passing yards with 56.2% completed passes and 8 touchdowns. Isaiah Ene leads the team in rushing yards with 410, while Matthew Coleman has a team-high 492 receiving yards and 41 receptions. Defensively, Boogsie Silvera has a team-high 71 total tackles (35 of them solo), while Xavier Williams leads the team with 1.5 sacks.

Injury Report

K. Peevy               WR         Out – Undisclosed             Oct 18, ’26
C. Borders           RB          Out – Undisclosed             Oct 18, ’26
A. Bryant             WR         Out – Undisclosed             Oct 18, ’26
E. Huddle             TE           Out – Undisclosed             Oct 18, ’26
B. Collins              RB          Out – Undisclosed             Oct 18, ’26
J. Williams           TE           Questionable – Undisclosed          Oct 18, ’26

Toledo Rockets Preview

Toledo has a 6-2 record and a 3-1 record in the MAC. They are coming off a 45-38 home win against Western Michigan and will face UMass and Bowling Green next.

Offensively, Toledo averages 37.4 points per game, ranking 15th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 25.4 points per game, which is 75th. Toledo averages 475.5 total yards per game (288.1 passing and 187.4 rushing), while allowing 325.6 total yards per game (127.4 rushing and 198.3 passing). They average 71.0 plays per game and 6.7 yards per play on offense, while allowing 69.3 plays per game and 4.7 yards per play on defense. Toledo averages 22.5 first downs per game on offense and 18.6 first downs per game on defense. They have turned the ball over 1.3 times per game and are forcing 1.4 turnovers per game.

John Alan Richter leads Toledo with 2,244 passing yards with 66.8% completed passes and 17 touchdowns. CJ Miller leads the team in rushing yards with 609, while Adjatay Dabbs has a team-high 592 receiving yards and 40 receptions. Defensively, Julian Fox has a team-high 66 total tackles (29 of them solo), while Andrew Zock leads the team with 8.0 sacks.

Injury Report

R. Bond WR         Questionable – Undisclosed          Oct 18, ’26
C. Smith               RB          Questionable – Undisclosed          Oct 17, ’26
T. Kelleher           TE           Out – Undisclosed             Oct 10, ’26

Toledo Rockets @ Sacramento State Hornets Betting Trends: Week 10

Why the Toledo Rockets will win

• Toledo has won each of its last four road games against conference opponents.
• Sacramento State has lost six of its last seven games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Sacramento State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games as an underdog.
• Toledo has covered the spread in three of its last four road games against conference opponents.
• Toledo has won the first half in 10 of its last 12 games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Four of Toledo’s last five road games in November have gone UNDER the total points line.

Sacramento State Hornets Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 10, Matthew Coleman leads Sacramento State for touchdowns (5) this season.

Toledo Rockets Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 10, Andrew Zock ranks T5th amongst FBS players for sacks (8.0) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Sacramento State ranks 138th among FBS teams for average point differential in second quarters this season (-9.4).
• Sacramento State has recorded fewer total yards than its opponents in each of its last seven games – equal-longest active streak in the FBS.
• Toledo ranks T129th among FBS teams for sacks this season (6.0).
• Toledo ranks 12th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (288.1).

K. Gilbert Jr.        WR         Out – Undisclosed             Oct 10, ’26
T. Jones WR         Out – Undisclosed             Oct 10, ’26

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Toledo -24.5