Pick details
| MATCHUP | Texas State Bobcats | San Diego State Aztecs |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Spread | -8.5 -108 | +8.5 -112 |
| Moneyline | -325 | +260 |
| Total | Over 57.5 (-112) | Under 57.5 (-108) |
| Where | Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA | |
| When | Saturday, October 3, 2026 | |
| Time | 10:30 PM EDT | |
| TV | CW | |
San Diego State Aztecs Preview
San Diego State has a 1-3 record and are coming off a 16-41 road loss against Toledo. They will face Oregon State and Fresno State next. Offensively, San Diego State averages 23 points per game, ranking 107th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 28.8 points per game, which is 110th. San Diego State averages 320 total yards per game (164.8 passing and 155.3 rushing), while allowing 412.8 total yards per game (172.5 rushing and 240.3 passing).
Jayden Denegal leads San Diego State with 597 passing yards with 56.1% completed passes and 5 touchdowns. Javion Kinnard leads the team in rushing yards with 312, while Nathan Acevedo has a team-high 12 receptions for 130 receiving yards. Defensively, Sione Hala has a team-high 39 total tackles (20 of them solo), while Djibril Abdou Rahman leads the team with 2 sacks.
Texas State Bobcats Preview
Texas State has a 2-2 record and are coming off a 63-10 home win against UIW. They will face Colorado State and Utah State next. Offensively, Texas State averages 36.2 points per game, ranking 40th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 33.8 points per game, which is 128th. Texas State averages 523.3 total yards per game (242 passing and 281.3 rushing), while allowing 469.3 total yards per game (121 rushing and 348.3 passing).
Brad Jackson leads Texas State with 854 passing yards with 68.4% completed passes and 10 touchdowns, also adding a team-high 106 rushing yards. Chris Dawn Jr. has a team-high 19 receptions for 247 receiving yards. Defensively, Jayden Bradley has a team-high 29 total tackles (14 of them solo), while Tymere Jackson leads the team with 2.5 sacks.
Texas State Bobcats @ San Diego State Aztecs Betting Trends: Week 5
Why the San Diego State Aztecs will win
- Texas State has lost each of its last five October games as a favorite.
- San Diego State has won seven of its last eight games at Snapdragon Stadium.
- San Diego State has covered the spread in each of its last six games in October.
- Texas State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six games in October.
- San Diego State has won the first quarter in six of its last nine October games as an underdog.
- San Diego State has won the first half in seven of its last eight games at Snapdragon Stadium.
Why the Texas State Bobcats will win
- Texas State has won six of its last seven games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- San Diego State has lost five of its last six games.
- San Diego State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- The favorite has covered the spread in five of Texas State’s last six games.
- Texas State has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against conference opponents.
- The favorite has won the first half in six of Texas State’s last seven games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of San Diego State’s last six games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Thirteen of Texas State’s last 15 October road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
San Diego State Aztecs Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Jaylon Hawkins ranks 1st amongst FBS players for kick return yards (319) this season.
Texas State Bobcats Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Torrance Burgess Jr. ranks 4th amongst FBS players for rushing yards (537) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- San Diego State ranks 133rd among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (18.3).
- San Diego State ranks 129th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (10.5).
- Texas State ranks 138th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (348.3).
- Texas State ranks 138th among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (104).
Texas State vs San Diego State Prediction
In this Texas State vs San Diego State Prediction, Texas State is coming as -8.5 road favorites. Both teams are coming into this matchup in opposite trajectories, as Texas State has won and covered its last two games, having scored 112 points combined, while San Diego State has three consecutive losses, having failed to cover the spread in all three and were outscored 39-95 in those games. Take Texas State and lay the points on the road in this one.
