South Florida vs Bowling Green Prediction 9/26/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article, we will formulate a South Florida vs Bowling Green Prediction for this College Football Week 4 matchup on Saturday, September 26th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Bowling Green Falcons Preview

Bowling Green has a 0-3 record and are coming off a 7-55 road loss against Iowa State. They will face Miami (OH) and Sacramento State next. Offensively, Bowling Green averages 9 points per game, ranking 138th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 43.7 points per game, which is 136th. Bowling Green averages 240.3 total yards per game (147.3 passing and 93 rushing), while allowing 505.7 total yards per game (295.7 rushing and 210 passing).

Jay Kastantin leads Bowling Green with 443 passing yards with 66.7% completed passes and 2 touchdowns. Austyn Dendy leads the team in rushing yards with 126, while Jeremiah Scoby has a team-high 14 receptions for 138 receiving yards. Defensively, Dorian Pringle has a team-high 32 total tackles (15 of them solo), while Kade Kostus leads the team with one sack.

South Florida Bulls Preview

South Florida has a 3-0 record and are coming off a 59-17 home win against Delaware State. They will face Temple and UTSA next. Offensively, South Florida averages 35.3 points per game, ranking 53rd in the nation, while defensively, they allow 16.7 points per game, which is 37th. South Florida averages 396 total yards per game (220 passing and 176 rushing), while allowing 360.3 total yards per game (134 rushing and 226.3 passing).

Michael Van Buren Jr. leads South Florida with 639 passing yards with 66.3% completed passes and 3 touchdowns. D.J. Crowther leads the team in rushing yards with 182, while Joshua Porter has a team-high 12 receptions for 181 receiving yards. Defensively, Ayden Jackson has a team-high 22 total tackles (10 of them solo), while Zavier Hamilton leads the team with one sack.

South Florida Bulls @ Bowling Green Falcons Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the Bowling Green Falcons will win

• The underdog has won each of Bowling Green’s last six games at Doyt Perry Stadium.
• South Florida has lost each of its last three games in Ohio.
• The underdog has covered the spread in each of Bowling Green’s last eight games at Doyt Perry Stadium.
• South Florida has lost the first half in each of its last four road games in September.

Why the South Florida Bulls will win

• South Florida has won each of its last 21 September games as a favorite.
• Bowling Green has lost nine of its last 10 games in September.
• Bowling Green has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine games.
• South Florida has covered the spread in each of its last four games in Ohio.
• South Florida has won the first half in each of its last 10 September games as a favorite.
• South Florida has won the first quarter in each of its last four games in September.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Bowling Green’s last five games in Ohio have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of South Florida’s last six road games have gone OVER the total points line.

Bowling Green Falcons Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 4, Dorian Pringle leads the league for tackles (32) this season.

South Florida Bulls Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 4, D.J. Crowther ranks T13th amongst FBS players for rushing touchdowns (4) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Bowling Green ranks 138th among FBS teams for points per game this season (9.0).
• Bowling Green ranks 138th among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (14.0).
• South Florida ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).
• South Florida ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).

South Florida vs Bowling Green Prediction

In this South Florida vs Bowling Green Prediction, South Florida is coming as -17.5 road favorites. Bowling Green has been terrible this season, having lost and failed to cover all of its three games played and has the worst offense in the entire country with just 9 points per game. They have conceded 55+ points in their last two games and will face a USF team that has been undefeated this season, has covered the spread in its last two games and almost cracks the top-50 of the nation in points per game. Take USF to win comfortably and cover the spread on the road in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: South Florida -17.5