SMU vs Louisville Prediction 9/19/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a SMU vs Louisville prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 19th at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 3 matchup. 

SMU Mustangs Betting Preview

The SMU Mustangs are 2-0 (1-0) this season after they defeated UC Davis by a score of 56-10 last week. SMU led 42-0 at halftime, but they did allow 10 points in the fourth quarter to lose the shutout. The Mustangs out gained UC Davis by a total of 547-233, went 5-10 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-0 in the game. Kevin Jennings threw for 337 yards and five touchdowns, while Yamir Knight caught three passes for 62 yards. Derrick McFall rushed six times for 46 yards in the game. 

Prior to that win, SMU defeated Florida State by a score of 27-24 in week one. The Mustangs have scored 41.5 points per game with 442.0 passing yards and 124.0 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 17.0 points against per game this season. Kevin Jennings has thrown for 767 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Yannick Smith has six receptions for 151 yards and two scores this season. 

Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview

The Louisville Cardinals are 1-1 (0-0) this year after they defeated Villanova by a score of 59-13 in week two. Louisville led 31-10 at halftime and added 28 points in the second half for the lopsided win. The Cardinals out gained Villanova by a total of 635-253, went 5-8 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Lincoln Kienholz threw for 332 yards and two touchdowns, while Lawayne McCoy caught three passes for 102 yards and one touchdown. Marquise Davis rushed seven times for 86 yards and two scores in the game. 

Prior to that win, Louisville lost to Ole Miss by a score of 41-38 in week one. The Cardinals have scored 48.5 points per game with 341.0 passing yards and 211.0 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 27.0 points against per game this season. Lincoln Kienholz has thrown for 639 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions, while also rushing for 111 yards and three scores this year. 

Why the Louisville Cardinals will win

• Louisville has won each of its last eight September games at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.
• The team ranked 16th in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games.
• Louisville has covered the spread in each of its last three games in September.
• SMU has lost the first half in each of its last three September games as a road underdog.

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• Louisville has lost each of its last five September games as an AP-ranked team against an AP-ranked team.
• The underdog has won three of Louisville’s last four games at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.
• Louisville has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against conference opponents at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.
• SMU has covered the spread in five of its last six September road games against AP-ranked teams.
• SMU has won the first half in 12 of its last 14 road games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Louisville’s last four games in September have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of SMU’s last four September games as a road underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.

Louisville Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Lincoln Kienholz has recorded 300+ passing yards in two consecutive games – equal-longest streak in the FBS, heading into Week 3.

SMU Mustangs Player Prop Facts

• Kevin Jennings has recorded 275+ passing yards in three consecutive games – equal-longest streak in the FBS, heading into Week 3.

Matchup/League Facts

• Louisville ranks 2nd among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (30.0).
• Louisville ranks 4th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (16.0).
• SMU ranks 7th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (566.0).
• SMU ranks T8th among FBS teams for average point differential in second quarters this season (+17.5).

SMU vs Louisville Prediction 

SMU comes into this matchup with a 2-0 record so far, but made a ton of mistakes in their win against Florida State in week one. The Mustangs need to fix their turnover issues, which nearly cost them that game. Louisville lost a thrilling game to Ole Miss in week one, but they have scored 38 and 59 in their two games. The Cardinals have a solid QB, but I am worried about their defense. I think we could see a lot of scoring in this one, but I will side with Louisville, as I am worried about the mistakes we have seen from SMU.

David Racey's Pick: Louisville ML