Memphis vs South Florida Prediction 11/12/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

The Memphis Tigers and the South Florida Bulls will meet Thursday night in an American Athletic Conference matchup at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. Let’s take a look at this game from a betting perspective.

Memphis Tigers vs. South Florida Bulls Prediction

In my view, the way to go in this matchup is the total rather than a side. Why? South Florida’s entire identity is built around defense. The Bulls are allowing just 14.9 points per game, which ranks ninth nationally, while surrendering only 175 passing yards per contest, the 12th-best mark in the country. That defensive profile should be good enough to slow down even an explosive Memphis offense.

The Tigers enter the game averaging 36.6 points per contest, which ranks 12th nationally, and 292.8 passing yards per game, which ranks 11th in the FBS. However, this is arguably the toughest pass defense Memphis will face all season. South Florida has consistently forced opponents to sustain long drives rather than generating explosive plays. With that said, I envision a contest where both team struggle to find consistent offensive production in this one. With that said, I am backing under 52.5 points in this game.

Memphis Tigers Betting Preview

The Memphis Tigers enter Thursday night’s contest with a 7-2 overall record, including a 5-0 home record and a 2-2 mark in American Athletic Conference play. The Tigers have amassed victories over notable Army, UNLV, Arkansas State and the East Carolina Pirates, while losing games to Tulane and the Boise State Broncos.

The Tigers have once again established themselves as one of the most dangerous offensive teams in college football. Memphis has consistently generated explosive plays and enters November with conference championship aspirations. The Memphis Tigers are averaging 36.6 points per game (12th in FBS), while allowing 23.9 points per contest which ranks 49th in the nation.

The passing attack has been particularly impressive. Memphis is averaging 292.8 passing yards per game which ranks 11th in the country. What did we learn from the data just presented? Memphis possesses an offense capable of challenging even elite defenses through the air.  

South Florida Bulls Betting Preview

The South Florida Bulls enter Thursday night’s matchup with a 6-3 overall record, including a 4-1 home record, a 2-2 road record, and a 2-3 mark in AAC play. The Bulls have tallied notable wins over UAB, Kent State and the Army Black Knights, while losing games to East Carolina Pirates, UTSA Roadrunners and the Temple Owls.

While South Florida’s offense has struggled to consistently produce points, the defense has repeatedly kept the Bulls in position to win games. The South Florida Bulls are averaging 21.8 points per game (99th in nation), while allowing just 14.9 points per contest which ranks a rather impressive ninth in the country.

South Florida is averaging just 148.9 passing yards per game, but the Bulls quality defense has kept the Bulls competitive in 2026. It should also be noted that South Florida is allowing only 175 passing yards per contest, which ranks 12th nationally.  

Why the Memphis Tigers will win.

• Elite offense. Memphis is averaging 36.6 points per game, ranking 12th nationally.

• Passing attack. The Tigers are averaging 292.8 passing yards per game, ranking 11th nationally.

• Better overall record. Memphis enters the matchup at 7-2.

• Offensive ceiling. The Tigers possess significantly more firepower than South Florida.

• Solid defense. Memphis is allowing just 23.9 points per game.         

Why the South Florida Bulls will win.

• Elite defense. The Bulls are allowing only 14.9 points per game, ranking ninth nationally.

• Pass defense. South Florida is allowing only 175 passing yards per game, ranking 12th nationally.

• Home field advantage. The Bulls own a 4-1 home record this season.

• Defensive consistency. South Florida has relied on defense all season to remain competitive.

• Low scoring style. The Bulls have repeatedly turned games into defensive battles.

Hans Geevers's Pick: Under 52.5