Liberty vs New Mexico State Prediction 11/7/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

Liberty vs New Mexico State Prediction

In this Liberty vs New Mexico State prediction, Liberty is coming as -16.5 road favorites. Liberty has been excellent this season, as they have lost only once in their 8 games played and have covered the spread in each of their last six games. They have the 7th-best defense in the entire country and a +20.3 point differential and will face a mediocre Next Mexico State team that is 2-4 in its last 6 overall games and has lost two of its last three at home, with an offense that is shaky at best, having scored just zero and three points in two of its last three games, so I don’t think they stand a chance here. Take Liberty and lay the big number on the road.

New Mexico State Aggies Preview

New Mexico State has a 3-5 record and a 2-2 record in Conference USA. They are coming off a 0-24 home loss against Jacksonville State and will face Missouri State and Delaware next.

Offensively, New Mexico State averages 21.5 points per game, ranking 113th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 25.2 points per game, which is 77th. New Mexico State averages 352.5 total yards per game (195.8 passing and 156.8 rushing), while allowing 345.1 total yards per game (136.0 rushing and 209.1 passing). They average 63.6 plays per game and 5.5 yards per play on offense, while allowing 64.8 plays per game and 5.3 yards per play on defense. New Mexico State averages 18.0 first downs per game on offense and 17.4 first downs per game on defense. They have turned the ball over 1.8 times per game and are forcing 1.3 turnovers per game.

Trey Hedden leads New Mexico State with 906 passing yards with 52.4% completed passes and 5 touchdowns. James Jones leads the team in rushing yards with 889, while Tyler King has a team-high 307 receiving yards and 23 receptions. Defensively, Nick Session has a team-high 58 total tackles (38 of them solo), while Gabe Peterson leads the team with 5.5 sacks.

Liberty Flames Preview

Liberty has a 7-1 record and a 4-0 record in Conference USA. They are coming off a 49-10 home win against FIU and will face Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky next.

Offensively, Liberty averages 33.8 points per game, ranking 33rd in the nation, while defensively, they allow 13.5 points per game, which is 7th. Liberty averages 411.0 total yards per game (198.8 passing and 212.3 rushing), while allowing 282.1 total yards per game (105.1 rushing and 177.0 passing). They average 62.9 plays per game and 6.5 yards per play on offense, while allowing 60.4 plays per game and 4.7 yards per play on defense. Liberty averages 21.8 first downs per game on offense and 16.5 first downs per game on defense. They have turned the ball over 0.8 times per game and are forcing 1.4 turnovers per game.

Deshawn Purdie leads Liberty with 1,453 passing yards with 63.2% completed passes and 10 touchdowns. Kam Davis leads the team in rushing yards with 603, while Makai Jackson has a team-high 626 receiving yards and 29 receptions. Defensively, Derrell Farrar has a team-high 43 total tackles (21 of them solo), while Brenton Williams leads the team with 4.0 sacks.

Liberty Flames @ New Mexico State Aggies Betting Trends: Week 10

Why the New Mexico State Aggies will win

• Liberty has lost four of its last five November games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
• The home team has won three of the last four games between Liberty and New Mexico State.
• New Mexico State has covered the spread in eight of its last nine November games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Liberty has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four November games as a road favorite.

Why the Liberty Flames will win

• Liberty has won each of its last seven games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• New Mexico State has lost each of its last four November games at Aggie Memorial Stadium.
• Liberty has covered the spread in each of its last six games.
• New Mexico State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• New Mexico State has lost the first half in seven of its last eight games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Five of New Mexico State’s last six home games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Three of Liberty’s last four road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

New Mexico State Aggies Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 10, James Jones leads the Conference USA for rushing yards (889) this season.

Liberty Flames Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 10, Kam Davis leads the Conference USA for yards per carry (6.9) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• New Mexico State ranks 123rd among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (27:48).
• New Mexico State ranks T120th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (-2.8).
• Liberty ranks 5th among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (5.1).
• Liberty ranks 6th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+6.6).

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Liberty -16.5