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| MATCHUP | California Golden Bears | Virginia Cavaliers |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 3-6 | 4-5 |
| Spread | +10 -108 | -10 -112 |
| Moneyline | +320 | -410 |
| Total | Over 46.5 (-112) | Under 46.5 (-108) |
| Where | Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA | |
| When | Saturday, November 14, 2026 | |
| Time | 03:30 PM EST | |
| TV | ACC Network | |
California vs Virginia Prediction
In this California vs Virginia prediction for this College Football Week 11 matchup on Saturday, November 14th, Virginia is coming as -10.5 home favorites. Both teams have been struggling lately, as Virginia is 1-4 in its last 5 games and California 1-5 in its last 6 and they are even worse against the spread, with a 1-6 ATS record in their last 7 games each. They both have been struggling mightily on the offensive end lately, with Virginia having scored 16 points or less in three of their last four games and California having scored just 37 points in its last three. Under is 7-3 in their last 10 games combined, so take the under 46.5 points in this one.
Virginia Cavaliers Preview
Virginia has a 4-5 record and a 2-4 conference record, sitting on the 10th place of the ACC, while having a 4-1 home record, a 0-3 away record, and a 0-1 neutral record. They are coming off a 7-51 road loss against Wake Forest, following a 16-19 home loss against Duke and a 13-23 road loss against SMU, and will face North Carolina and Virginia Tech next.
Offensively, Virginia averages 25.9 points per game, while defensively, they allow 23.1 points per game. Virginia averages 357.4 total yards per game (212 passing and 145.4 rushing), while allowing 350.1 total yards per game (160.4 rushing and 189.7 passing). They average 67.4 plays per game and 5.3 yards per play on offense, while allowing 64.3 plays per game and 5.4 yards per play on defense. Virginia averages 20.7 first downs per game on offense and 18.7 first downs per game on defense. They average 7.5 yards per pass attempt and 3.7 yards per rush attempt. Virginia has scored 30 touchdowns this season (18 passing and 11 rushing). They are converting 30% of their third downs and 61.29% of their fourth downs. They have thrown 3 interceptions this season, while their defense has intercepted 8 passes.
Beau Pribula leads Virginia with 1,581 passing yards with 65.6% completed passes and 14 touchdowns. Jekail Middlebrook leads the team in rushing yards with 513, while Da’Shawn Martin has a team-high 366 receiving yards and 26 receptions. Defensively, Maddox Marcellus has a team-high 44 total tackles (20 of them solo), while Matthew Fobbs-White leads the team with 5 sacks.
California Golden Bears Preview
California has a 3-6 record and a 2-4 conference record, sitting on the 15th place of the ACC, while having a 2-3 home record and a 1-3 away record. They are coming off a 10-31 road loss against NC State, following a 20-59 road loss against SMU and a 7-41 home loss against Wake Forest, and will face Stanford and Pitt next.
Offensively, California averages 21.9 points per game, while defensively, they allow 31.6 points per game. California averages 358.1 total yards per game (275.3 passing and 82.8 rushing), while allowing 392.6 total yards per game (184.6 rushing and 208 passing). They average 70.3 plays per game and 5.1 yards per play on offense, while allowing 65.4 plays per game and 6 yards per play on defense. California averages 19.6 first downs per game on offense and 21.9 first downs per game on defense. They average 6.4 yards per pass attempt and 3 yards per rush attempt. California has scored 24 touchdowns this season (14 passing and 8 rushing). They are converting 35.25% of their third downs and 29.17% of their fourth downs. They have thrown 6 interceptions this season, while their defense has intercepted 7 passes.
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele leads California with 1,751 passing yards with 67.4% completed passes and 11 touchdowns. Adam Mohammed leads the team in rushing yards with 363, while Chase Hendricks has a team-high 565 receiving yards and 61 receptions. Defensively, AJ Tuitele has a team-high 52 total tackles (19 of them solo), while JD McKinley and AJ Tuitele lead the team with 3 sacks each.
California Golden Bears @ Virginia Cavaliers Betting Trends: Week 11
Why the Virginia Cavaliers will win
- California has lost five of its last six road games.
- The home team has won five of Virginia’s last six games.
- California has failed to cover the spread in 10 of its last 12 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- The home team has covered the spread in four of California’s last five games.
- California has lost the first half in each of its last three November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Why the California Golden Bears will win
- Virginia has lost three of its last four November games as a home favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- California has won six of its last eight November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Virginia has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games against conference opponents.
- California has won the first half in three of its last four November road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Five of California’s last six games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Four of Virginia’s last five games against conference opponents at Scott Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
Virginia Cavaliers Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Dashawn Martin leads Virginia for touchdowns (6) this season.
California Golden Bears Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Kingston Lopa ranks T2nd amongst FBS players for interceptions (5) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Virginia ranks 130th among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (72.7).
- Virginia ranks 122nd among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (92.0).
- California ranks 133rd among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (29.2).
- California ranks 132nd among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (11.6).
