Troy vs Texas State Prediction 2/25/25 College Basketball Picks

The Troy Trojans and the Texas State Bobcats meet Thursday in college basketball action from the Fant-Ewing Coliseum. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Troy vs. Texas State prediction.

Matchup History

Texas State won the first meeting this season back on January 9th, 2025, by a final score of 74-73. The win made it three consecutive wins and ATS covers for the Bobcats in response to three straight wins by Troy in the previous three games.

Troy Recap

The Troy Trojans come into this game looking to add to their 83-66 win over Coastal Carolina last time out to improve to 18-10 on the year. After this game, Troy will finish out the regular season with a game against Southern Miss.

Trojans Looking To Build Momentum

Tayton Conerway leads the Trojans in scoring, assists, and steals with 13.4 PPG, 5.1 APG, and 2.9 SPG along with 4.6 RPG while Myles Rigsby has 11.2 PPG with 4 RPG as the only other double-digit scorer for Troy up to this point in the year. Thomas Dowd has 9.4 PPG with a team-high 6.4 RPG to lead the Trojans on the glass so far this season while Jackson Fields has 7.7 PPG with 4.9 RPG as well on the year. Marcus Rigsby Jr. has 7 PPG as well this season. As a team, Troy is averaging 73.1 PPG on 44.2% shooting from the field, 30.4% from three-point range, and 70.6% from the foul line this season.

Why the Troy Trojans will win

• Troy has won four of its last five road night games against the Sun Belt Conference.

Texas State Recap

The Texas State Bobcats come into this game looking to add to their 93-92 win over South Alabama at home in their last game to improve to 15-14 on the year. After this game, Texas State will close out the regular season with a home date against James Madison.

Bobcats Win Back-To-Back Games

Tylan Pope leads the Bobcats in scoring with 15.9 PPG along with 6.6 RPG while Tyrel Morgan has 14.2 PPG with 6.7 RPG and 2.5 APG in 20 games played so far this season. Kaden Gumbs has 11.7 PPG with 3.6 RPG and a team-high 4.4 APG to lead the Bobcats in the assist department up to this point in the year. Mark Drone has added 11.6 PPG and 2.9 APG in 7 games played so far this year and Coleton Benson has 9.9 PPG in 19 games played while Joshua O’Garro has 9.6 PPG with a team-high 7.1 RPG to lead the Bobcats in rebounding up to this point in the year. As a team, Texas State is averaging 76.1 PPG on 46.5% shooting from the field, 36.8% from three-point range, and 76% from the foul line so far this season.

Why the Texas State Bobcats will win

• Texas State has won nine of its last 10 night games at Strahan Arena at the University Events Center.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Troy’s last nine road games has produced a total of 141 or fewer points.
• Seven of Texas State’s last eight games against Conference opponents at Strahan Arena at the University Events Center have produced a total of 143+ points.

Troy vs. Texas State Prediction

I’m on Texas State here. The Bobcats have been a really solid team to back at home this season and I like what I’ve seen from them in their recent home games. Troy has been one of the best in the Sun Belt this season in their own right, but Texas State has had their number going back to last year and while the revenge spot for Troy is all well and good, I think Texas State has enough in the tank to defend home court and get themselves the win here. Give me Texas State in this one.