Troy vs South Alabama Prediction 2/21/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The Troy Trojans and South Alabama Jaguars meet Saturday in college basketball action at the Mitchell Center. Here’s a Troy vs. South Alabama prediction. This article will include a Troy vs. South Alabama pick.

Troy Trojans Betting Preview

The Troy Trojans beat UL Monroe and lost to Southern Miss, and they play Louisiana next. Troy has split its last 8 games.

The Troy Trojans are averaging 84.5 points on 44.9 percent shooting and allowing 77.5 points on 43.7 percent shooting. Victor Valdes is averaging 15.4 points and 4.6 assists, while Thomas Dowd is averaging 14.4 points and 10.2 rebounds. Theo Seng is the third double-digit scorer, and Cooper Campbell is grabbing 3.6 rebounds. The Troy Trojans are shooting 34.3 percent from beyond the arc and 72.8 percent from the free throw line. The Troy Trojans are allowing 32.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 36.6 rebounds per game.

South Alabama Jaguars Betting Preview

The South Alabama Jaguars lost to Marshall and Texas State, and they play UL Monroe next. South Alabama has won 6 of its last 9 games.

The South Alabama Jaguars are averaging 77.5 points on 46.8 percent shooting and allowing 72.7 points on 38.8 percent shooting. Chaze Harris is averaging 19 points and 4.5 rebounds, while Adam Olsen is averaging 16.4 points and 1 assist. Peyton Law is the third double-digit scorer, and Jayden Cooper is grabbing 2.6 rebounds. The South Alabama Jaguars are shooting 34.8 percent from beyond the arc and 66.2 percent from the free throw line. The South Alabama Jaguars are allowing 32.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 32.6 rebounds per game.

Why the South Alabama Jaguars will win

• South Alabama has won each of its last seven home games against Troy.
• Troy has lost eight of its last nine games at Mitchell Center.
• Troy has lost the first half in each of its last four games at Mitchell Center against non-AP-ranked opponents.

Why the Troy Trojans will win

• Troy has won 10 of its last 11 day games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• South Alabama has lost the first half in eight of its last 10 games against the Sun Belt Conference.

Total Points Facts

• Each of South Alabama’s last five games against non-AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 150+ points.
• Five of Troy’s last six games against the Sun Belt Conference Conference have produced a total of 137 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• South Alabama ranks 3rd among Division 1 teams for opponent free throws made per game this season (10.1).
• South Alabama ranks 3rd among Division 1 teams for opponent free throw attempts per game this season (14.0).
• Troy ranks 46th among Division 1 teams for steals per game this season (8.3).
• Troy ranks 46th among Division 1 teams for opponent free throw percentage this season (69.5%).

Troy vs South Alabama Prediction

Troy is the better team and should be favored, but this line smells fishy. It’s going to be a fourth straight road game for Troy. South Alabama has also come along lately, winning 6 of its last 9 games, and that includes beating Arkansas State on the road. South Alabama is quietly making a move in the Sun Belt, and this feels like a measuring stick game to know if this run is real. Oddsmakers are showing respect with this line, and I’m going to lean in that direction. Give me the bucket with South Alabama at home.

Randy Chambers's Pick: South Alabama +2.5