Troy vs Arkansas State Prediction 1/7/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The Troy Trojans and the Arkansas State Red Wolves meet Wednesday in college basketball action from the First National Bank Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Troy Trojans vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves prediction.

Troy Trojans Recap

The Troy Trojans come into this game looking to add on to their 59-49 win over South Alabama last time out to sit at 9-5 this season. After this game, Troy will head on the road for a game against Louisiana.

Trojans Win 4 In A Row

Victor Valdes leads the Trojans in scoring with 16.6 PPG along with 4 RPG and 4.2 APG while Thomas Dowd has 15.8 PPG with 10.3 RPG to lead the Trojans in rebounding by averaging a double-double per game. Cooper Campbell has 14.1 PPG with 3.7 RPG and a team-high 5.1 APG to lead Troy in assists while Theo Seng has 13.1 PPG with 5.7 RPG to round out the group of double-digit scorers for Troy so far this season. Cobi Campbell also has 9.6 PPG as well this season for Troy. As a team, Troy is averaging 86.5 PPG on 45.4% shooting from the field, 34.6% from three and 72.5% from the foul line this season.

Arkansas State Red Wolves Recap

The Arkansas State Red Wolves come into this game looking to shake off their 78-74 loss at the hands of James Madison last time out to sit at 10-5 this season. After this game, Arkansas State will take on Texas State at home.

Red Wolves Have Three-Game Win Streak Snapped

Matt Hayman has 11.6 PPG with 3.3 RPG and 2.3 APG while TJ Caldwell has 10 PPG with 3.1 RPG and Chandler Jackson has 10.9 PPG with 3.2 RPG and a team-high 4.3 APG to lead Arkansas State in assists so far this season. Jaxon Ellingsworth has 10.7 PPG with 5.5 RPG and Christian Harmon has 10 PPG with 3.8 RPG and 2.6 APG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for Arkansas State so far this season. Jalen Hampton has 7.5 PPG with a team-high 7 RPG to lead the Red Wolves in rebounding so far this season. As a team, Arkansas State is averaging 83.1 PPG on 45.5% shooting from the field, 31.8% from three and 77.3% from the foul line this season.

Troy Trojans @ Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Trends: January 7, 2026

Why the Arkansas State Red Wolves will win

• Arkansas State has won 22 of its last 25 games at First National Bank Arena.
• Troy has lost three of its last four night games.
• Arkansas State has won the first half in nine of its last 10 night games at First National Bank Arena.

Why the Troy Trojans will win

• Troy has won each of its last nine games against Conference opponents.
• Arkansas State has lost three of its last four games against Conference opponents at First National Bank Arena.
• Troy has won the first half in six of its last seven games against Conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Twelve of Troy’s last 13 night games against Conference opponents have produced a total of 155 or fewer points.
• Seven of Arkansas State’s last eight night games against Conference opponents at First National Bank Arena have produced a total of 150 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Arkansas State ranks 25th among Division 1 teams for free throw percentage this season (77.3%).
• Arkansas State ranks 42nd among Division 1 teams for opponent free throw percentage this season (68.0%).
• Troy ranks 21st among Division 1 teams for steals per game this season (9.7).
• Troy ranks 25th among Division 1 teams for field goal attempts per game this season (64.7).

Troy Trojans vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Prediction

I’m on Arkansas State here. I think that the Red Wolves are still the better team in this game, and I just think that it’s hard to ignore that Arkansas State was potentially looking past JMU to this game. Troy looks serious themselves, but I think that at home, A-State takes it. give me Arkansas State.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Arkansas State -3.5