Tarleton vs UT Arlington Prediction 1/21/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The Tarleton State Texans and the Texas-Arlington Mavericks meet Wednesday in college basketball action from College Park Center. Here’s a Tarleton State vs Texas-Arlington prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Tarleton State vs Texas-Arlington pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

Tarleton State Texans Betting Preview

The Texans posted a middling 5-4 record over their first nine games this year, but then took a nice win streak over Howard Payne, Cameron, Mississippi Valley State, Florida A&M and Texas-Arlington. Tarleton State has since lost four of the last five games though, dropping to Utah Valley, Abilene Christian, Southern Utah and Utah Tech in that time. That gives the Texans an 11-8 run over a total of 19 games this year.

In the Utah Tech matchup on Saturday the Texans entered the second half with a 34-31 deficit. Tarleton State didn’t end up getting any closer than that on a 41-40 run and took the loss in the end 75-71. Cam McDowell led the team with 25 points, five assists and three rebounds while Chris Mpaka had 11 points and seven boards. Dior Johnson added 11 points and two rebounds in 19 minutes as well.

Texas-Arlington Mavericks Betting Preview

Over on the TX-Arlington side, they posted an 8-5 run over their first 13 games this year. The losses during that time came courtesy of New Mexico, Campbell, Arkansas State, Stanford and Tarleton State. After wins over Cal Baptist, Southern Utah, Abilene Christian and Utah Tech, the Mavericks took another loss to Utah Valley. Over 18 games so far that gives the Mavs a 12-6 record.

Matched up versus Utah Valley in a road game on Saturday, the Mavericks were in the locker room with a 46-28 deficit. Texas-Arlington got slightly better from there on a 46-40 run but still took the loss in the end 86-74. Cash Chavis was the leading team scorer with 20 points, three rebounds and three assists. Marcell McCreary added 15 points with five rebounds in 34 minutes during the loss.

Tarleton State Texans @ UT Arlington Mavericks Betting Trends: January 21, 2026

Why the UT Arlington Mavericks will win

• Tarleton State has lost seven of its last eight night games against the Western Athletic Conference.
• UT Arlington Mavericks has won six of its last seven games at College Park Center against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• UT Arlington Mavericks has won the first half in 12 of its last 16 night games at College Park Center.

Why the Tarleton State Texans will win

• Tarleton State has won three of its last four night games following a road loss.
• UT Arlington Mavericks has lost the first half in six of its last seven night games against the Western Athletic Conference.

Tarleton State vs TX-Arlington Prediction

I’ll take a stab on the Mavericks. Texas-Arlington needs to have a bounce-back effort here after the road loss to Utah Valley, though. In that one the Mavs gave up 53.3 percent shooting with a 54-32 deficit on points in the paint and 14 turnovers in a pretty listless game—especially in the first half. TX-Arlington is still 4-1 in their last five games though, with 74 or more points scored in three of the last four.

These teams last saw each other back on December 29 in a 69-63 road win for Tarleton State. The Mavericks shot 42.2 percent from the field with a 32-22 rebounding edge in that one but it was a sloppy game with a whopping 17 turnovers to the Texans’ six. This one’s likely to be a pretty competitive matchup as well, so you could call it either way.

Andrew Jett's Pick: Texas-Arlington Mavericks -3.5