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SMU vs Louisville Prediction 1/31/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks
Pick details
| MATCHUP | SMU Mustangs | Louisville Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Where | KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY | |
| When | Saturday, January 31, 2026 | |
| Time | 02:00 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPN | |
Louisville Cardinals Preview
The Louisville Cardinals have a 14-6 overall record this season and a 4-4 record in the ACC. They are coming off an 83-52 away loss against Duke and their previous three games were an 85-71 home win against Virginia Tech, a 100-59 away win against Pittsburgh and a 79-70 home loss against Virginia.
Offensively, Louisville averages 86 points per game, while allowing 70.3 points per game defensively. The Cardinals shoot with 46% from the field and grab 40.7 rebounds per game, while dishing out 17.5 assists per game. They average 3.3 blocks per game and 7.3 steals per game defensively.
Ryan Conwell leads Louisville in scoring, with an average of 19.4 points per game, while shooting with 40.6% from the field and 82.6% from the free throw line. Sananda Fru is the team’s leading rebounder with 6.9 per game, while Aly Khalifa leads the team in assists with 2.8 per game.
SMU Mustangs Preview
The SMU Mustangs have a 15-5 overall record this season and a 4-3 record in the ACC. They are coming off an 83-80 home win against Florida State and their previous three games were a 91-79 away win against Wake Forest, a 72-68 home loss against Virginia and a 77-76 home win against Virginia Tech.
Offensively, SMU averages 87.3 points per game, while allowing 77 points per game defensively. The Mustangs shoot with 49% from the field and grab 38.4 rebounds per game, while dishing out 17.8 assists per game. They average 4 blocks per game and 7.7 steals per game defensively.
Boopie Miller leads SMU in scoring and assists, with an average of 19.4 points and 6.7 assists per game, while shooting with 45.9% from the field and 88.2% from the free throw line. Samet Yigitoglu is the team’s leading rebounder with 8.1 per game.
SMU Mustangs @ Louisville Cardinals Betting Trends: January 31, 2026
Why the Louisville Cardinals will win
- Louisville has won each of its last 32 games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team at KFC Yum! Center.
- SMU has lost 14 of its last 15 games against AP-ranked opponents.
- Louisville has won the first half in 18 of its last 19 games at KFC Yum! Center against non-AP-ranked opponents.
Why the SMU Mustangs will win
- SMU has won each of its last six games when playing with a rest advantage.
- Louisville has lost four of its last five day games at KFC Yum! Center following a road loss.
- SMU has won the first half in three of its last four games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Louisville’s last 15 games against Conference opponents have produced a total of 160 or fewer points.
- Twenty-seven of SMU’s last 31 games against AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 162 or fewer points.
SMU vs Louisville Prediction
In this SMU vs Louisville Prediction, Louisville is coming as -8.5 home favorites. Both teams have almost identical overall records this season but Louisville has been excellent at home. Both teams have been up and down lately, as Louisville is 3-4 in its last 7 games and 1-6 against the spread, while SMU is 3-3 in its last 6 and 1-3 against the spread, so I see no value on either side. Both teams are 11-3 to the under in their last 14 games combined, so I expect another low-scoring affair today. Take the under 161.5 points in this one.
