North Carolina vs SMU Prediction 1/3/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The North Carolina Tar Heels and the SMU Mustangs meet Saturday in college basketball action from SMU Moody Coliseum. Here’s a North Carolina vs SMU prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best North Carolina vs SMU pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview

North Carolina beat Central Arkansas, Kansas, Radford, NC Central, Navy and St. Bonaventure in their first six before a loss to Michigan State. The next seven were all wins though, as the Tar Heels took out Kentucky, Georgetown, USC Upstate, East Tennessee State, Ohio State, East Carolina and Florida State for a nice 13-1 overall record across their first 14 games this year.

In the Florida State game on Tuesday, the Tar Heels were up by six points at the break. North Carolina kept it up in the second with a 39-32 run on the way to a 79-66 win. Tops in scoring was Caleb Wilson with 22 points, 16 boards and six assists. Henri Veesaar also doubled up on 12 points with 12 rebounds, and Seth Trimble had 20 points with seven boards.

SMU Mustangs Betting Preview

Over on the SMU side, they beat Tarleton State, Texas A&M-CC, Murray State, Butler, AR-Pine Bluff, Arkansas State, Radford and Mississippi State in their first eight games, then fell to Vanderbilt and LSU over the next three (with a win over Texas A&M). Since then it’s been wins over Central Arkansas and Cal State Fullerton, giving the Mustangs an 11-2 record this year.

In the CSU Fullerton game on Sunday, the Mustangs entered the second half with a dominant 51-19 edge. SMU rolled from there on a 59-44 stretch and took the blowout win in the end 110-63. BJ Edwards tripled up with 21 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists while Jermaine O’Neal had 21 points with three boards. Samet Yigitoglu doubled up on 11 points and 12 boards as well.

North Carolina Tar Heels @ SMU Mustangs Betting Trends: January 3, 2026

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• SMU has won each of its last nine games at Moody Coliseum (Dallas).

Why the North Carolina Tar Heels will win

• North Carolina has won each of its last 11 games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• SMU has lost 15 of its last 16 games against AP-ranked opponents.
• SMU has lost the first half in each of its last six games against AP-ranked opponents at Moody Coliseum (Dallas).

North Carolina vs SMU Prediction

I’ll lean toward North Carolina but you could call it either way. The Tar Heels are coming off a nice win over a decent FSU team, shooting 42.6 percent from the field with 45 rebounds, a 42-20 advantage on points in the paint and just eight turnovers. North Carolina wasn’t great from outside (7-of-29 for 24.1 percent) but they held the Seminoles to just 34.8 percent shooting on defense. The Tar Heels have won seven straight games now and scored 71 or more points in six straight.

As for SMU, they made short work of CSU Fullerton in their last game, shooting 53.2 percent from the field with a 46-11 advantage on points in the paint and a 41-31 edge in rebounding. The Mustangs have scored a whopping 209 points in their last two games, so they can certainly hang with UNC if all goes well. Should be a fun matchup.

Andrew Jett's Pick: SMU Mustangs +1.5