Pick details
| MATCHUP | NC State Wolfpack | Virginia Cavaliers |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 20-13 | 28-4 |
| Where | United Center, Chicago, IL | |
| When | Thursday, March 12, 2026 | |
| Time | 12:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | ESPN2 | |
The NC State Wolfpack and the Virginia Cavaliers meet Thursday in ACC Tournament college basketball action from Spectrum Center in Charlotte. Here’s an NC State vs Virginia prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best NC State vs Virginia pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.
NC State Wolfpack Betting Preview
The Wolfpack managed to go 12-6 over their first 18 games this year in a pretty decent start. After that came wins over Clemson, Pitt, Syracuse, Wake Forest, SMU and Virginia Tech. After that came a 1-6 run however, with losses to Louisville, Miami, Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke and Stanford in that time. Following a win over Pitt, NC State has a 20-12 record this year so far.
On Wednesday versus Pittsburgh in the tournament game, the Wolfpack held a slim 51-50 edge by the start of the second half. NC State hit a 47-38 run the rest of the way, keeping the Panthers at bay during a 98-88 victory. Leading the team in scoring during the win was Quadir Copeland with 24 points, four rebounds, eight assists and two steals in 36 minutes of work.
Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview
Over on the Virginia side, they were looking pretty good on a 16-2 record at the 18-game mark this year. The Cavs lost to North Carolina, then hit a win streak over Notre Dame, Boston College, Pitt, Syracuse, Florida State, Ohio State, Georgia Tech, Miami and NC State. After a loss to Duke and wins over Wake Forest and Virginia Tech the Cavaliers are 27-4 overall this year.
Last weekend versus Virginia Tech, the Cavaliers were in great shape at halftime, sitting on a very comfortable 41-25 edge. Virginia lost steam in the second half and got outscored 47-35 the rest of the way, but still managed to hang on for the 76-72 win in the end. Leading the team in scoring during the victory were Malik Thomas (two rebounds; two steals) and Ugonna Onyenso (five rebounds; three blocks), each with 16 points. Sam Lewis chipped in 15 points as well.
NC State Wolfpack @ Virginia Cavaliers Betting Trends: March 12, 2026
Why the Virginia Cavaliers will win
- Virginia has won each of its last 11 March day games as a top-10 AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
- NC State has lost 10 of its last 11 day games against Top 10 AP-ranked opponents.
- NC State has lost the first half in each of its last four day games against AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.
Why the NC State Wolfpack will win
- NC State has won each of its last seven games against the Atlantic Coast Conference at neutral venues.
- Virginia has lost three of its last four games as a top-15 AP-ranked team at Spectrum Center.
- Virginia has lost the first half in three of its last four games as a top-15 AP-ranked team at Spectrum Center.
Total Points Facts
- Each of NC State’s last nine day games against Conference opponents have produced a total of 152+ points.
- Forty-eight of Virginia’s last 53 day games against Conference opponents have produced a total of 148 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Virginia ranks 13th among Division 1 teams for opponent field goal percentage this season (39.7%).
- Virginia ranks 17th among Division 1 teams for rebound percentage this season (55.5%).
- NC State ranks 20th among Division 1 teams for assist to turnover ratio this season (1.69).
- NC State ranks T25th among Division 1 teams for opponent steals per game this season (5.2).
NC State vs Virginia Prediction
I’ll lean toward Virginia. The Cavaliers played pretty well overall in their win over Virginia Tech last weekend, shooting 44.8 percent from the field with 88.2 percent (15-of-17) from the line. Virginia added a 34-28 rebounding advantage but did have 12 turnovers for 12 Hokies points. The Cavs have only lost one of their last 12 games (on February 28 versus Duke), scoring 70 or more points in nine of those wins.
These teams last met back on February 24 in a blowout home win 90-61 for the Cavs. In that one Virginia shot an excellent 53.4 percent from the field while holding NC State to just 29.4 percent on defense. The Cavaliers added a 34-22 edge in the paint and 88.9 percent (16-of-18) from the free throw line. There really wasn’t much to complain about. If Virginia can get close to that performance again here, they’ll cruise.
Andrew Jett's Pick: Virginia Cavaliers -5
