Miami (FL) vs SMU Prediction 3/4/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The Miami Hurricanes and the SMU Mustangs meet Wednesday in college basketball action from the Moody Coliseum. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Miami Hurricanes vs. SMU Mustangs prediction.

Miami Hurricanes Recap

The Miami Hurricanes come into this game looking to add on to their 76-54 win over Boston College last time out to sit at 23-6 this season. After this game, Miami will head home for a game against Louisville to close out the regular season.

Hurricanes Win Back-To-Back Games

Malik Reneau leads the Hurricanes in scoring with 19.6 PPG along with 6.6 RPG and 2.1 APG while Tre Donaldson has 16.6 PPG with 3.7 RPG and a team-high 5.9 APG to lead Miami in assists. Tru Washington has 11.6 PPG with 4.1 RPG along with 1.8 SPG and Shelton Henderson has 14.3 PPG with 4.9 RPG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for Miami up to this point in the year. Ernest Udeh Jr. also has 6.9 PPG and a team-high 9.4 RPG to lead the Hurricanes in rebounding up to this point in the year. As a team, Miami is averaging 82.9 PPG on 50.5% shooting from the field, 34% from three and 67.8% from the foul line so far this season.

SMU Mustangs Recap

The SMU Mustangs come into this game looking to bounce back from their 95-75 loss at the hands of Stanford last time out to sit at 19-10 this season. After this game, SMU will head on the road for a game against Florida State.

Mustangs Lose Back-To-Back Games

Boopie Miller leads the Mustangs in scoring and assists with 18.9 PPG and 6.7 APG along with 1.8 SPG and 3.6 RPG while Jaron Pierre Jr. has 17.6 PPG with 5 RPG. Corey Washington has 11.6 PPG with 5 RPG and B.J. Edwards has 12.7 PPG with 5.9 RPG and 4.9 APG along with 2.3 SPG as well. Samet Yigitoglu has 10.8 PPG with 7.8 RPG to lead SMU in rebounding and to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for SMU so far this season. As a team, SMU is averaging 85.8 PPG on 49.8% shooting from the field, 37.9% from three and 74.5% from the foul line this season. 

Miami Hurricanes @ SMU Mustangs Betting Trends: March 4, 2026

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• SMU has won 13 of its last 14 night games at Moody Coliseum (Dallas).
• SMU has won the first half in each of its last 11 night games at Moody Coliseum (Dallas).

Why the Miami Hurricanes will win

• Miami (FL) has won each of its last 13 night games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
• SMU has lost eight of its last nine night games against AP-ranked opponents.
• SMU has lost the first half in 10 of its last 11 night games against AP-ranked opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Miami (FL)’s last eight night games have produced a total of 158 or fewer points.
• Seven of SMU’s last eight night games at Moody Coliseum (Dallas) have produced a total of 161+ points.

Matchup/League Facts

• SMU ranks 360th among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point field goal attempts per game this season (29.2).
• SMU ranks 9th among Division 1 teams for field goals made per game this season (31.1).
• Miami (FL) is one of only four teams to reach the Elite 8 in each of its last two NCAA Tournament appearances.
• Miami (FL) ranks 9th among Division 1 teams for field goal percentage this season (50.5%).

Miami Hurricanes vs. SMU Mustangs Prediction

I’m on SMU here. I think this Mustangs team is just better at home and Miami is a team that I’ve still had my reservations about for much of the season. I think that the Mustangs also need a win here to strengthen their resume and a win at home over Miami would to a long way towards that. Give me the Mustangs in this one.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: SMU -1.5