Cal Poly vs UC Davis Prediction 3/12/25 College Basketball Picks

The Cal Poly Mustangs are facing the UC-Davis Aggies on Wednesday, March 12th at the Lee’s Family Forum, in this Big West first-round matchup between the 6th seed and the 7th seed of the conference. The winner of this single-elimination game will face UC Riverside in the quarterfinals on Thursday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Cal Poly Mustangs vs UC-Davis Aggies Prediction. We will examine:

The UC-Davis Aggies’ recent form and player performance

The Cal Poly Mustangs’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the UC-Davis Aggies

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Cal Poly Mustangs

Recent betting trends in games played between the Cal Poly Mustangs and UC-Davis Aggies

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Cal Poly Mustangs Roadrunners vs UC-Davis Aggies game

UC-Davis Aggies Preview

The UC-Davis Aggies finished the regular season with a 15-16 record and were placed 6th in the Big West. The Aggies are coming off a 57-68 loss to UC San Diego. The Aggies are 16-12-1 against the spread and 11-17-1 in over/under.

Offensively, UC-Davis is averaging 67.7 points per game, which ranks 325th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 69.8 points per game (108th). The Aggies shoot 41% from the field (344th) and 32.4% from beyond the arc (271st). The Aggies shoot 74% from the free-throw line (114th) and are grabbing 33.2 rebounds per game (294th).

TY Johnson leads UC-Davis in scoring this season, with 21.2 points and 4.2 rebounds, while Pablo Tamba adds 10.8 points and 5.3 rebounds per game.

Cal Poly Mustangs Preview

The Cal Poly Mustangs finished the regular season with a 14-18 record and were placed 7th in the Big West. They are coming off an 83-69 win over Long Beach State. The Mustangs are 16-15 against the spread, and 19-12 in over/under.

Offensively, Cal Poly is averaging 81.7 points per game, which is 24th in the nation. Defensively, they are allowing 82.7 points per game, which is the 5th-worst nationally. The Mustangs shoot 45.9% from the field (118th) and 35.2% from beyond the arc (111th). The Mustangs shoot 76.8% from the free throw line (35th) and are grabbing 35.3 rebounds per game (182nd).

Owen Koonce leads Cal Poly in scoring this season, with an average of 17.2 points and a team-high 4.9 rebounds, while Jarred Hyder adds 14.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, and a team-high 3 assists per game.

Why the UC Davis Aggies will win

• UC Davis has won 16 of its last 17 games against Cal Poly.
• Cal Poly has lost 33 of its last 41 games against the Big West Conference.
• Cal Poly has lost the first half in eight of its last 10 games against the Big West Conference at neutral venues.

Why the Cal Poly Mustangs will win

• UC Davis has lost each of its last six games.
• Cal Poly has won four of its last five games.
• UC Davis has lost the first half in six of its last seven games against the Big West Conference.

Matchup/League Facts

• UC Davis ranks 18th among Division 1 teams for opponent turnovers per game this season (15.2).
• UC Davis ranks T25th among Division 1 teams for opponent blocks per game this season (2.5).
• Cal Poly ranks 363rd among Division 1 teams for opponent steals per game this season (9.5).
• Cal Poly ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for pace this season (74.2).

Cal Poly Mustangs vs UC-Davis Aggies Prediction

UC-Davis is 9-1 in their last 10 meetings against Cal Poly, and are 3-1 against the spread in their last 4 meetings. Under is 9-1 in their last 10 meetings. UC-Davis has won both meetings against Cal Poly this season. At home by 77-66 and on the road by 65-54, covering the spread in both, as both games went under the point total.

In this Cal Poly Mustangs vs UC-Davis Aggies Prediction, Cal Poly is coming as -2.5-point favorites. Both teams have almost identical records, but Cal Poly has actually fewer wins away from home than UC Davis (5 to 7). UC-Davis has been in terrible form lately, coming off six consecutive losses, and are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7. On the other hand, Cal Poly is 4-1 in their last 5 games and 7-2 against the spread in their last 9. Both teams are 3-0 to the under in their last 3 games combined and both of their meetings this season also went under the total. I expect a tight game in this single-elimination matchup, so I like the under.