Utah State (25-6) vs UNLV (18-14)
Game Info: Thursday, March 13, 2025 at 11:30 pm (Thomas & Mack Center)
Betting Odds: Utah State -7.5 -- Over/Under: 142.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds
Where to Watch: CBSSN
The UNLV Runnin' Rebels are facing the Utah State Aggies on Thursday, March 13th at the Thomas & Mack Center, in this Mountain West quarterfinal between the 3rd seed and the 6th seed of the conference. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs Utah State Aggies Prediction. We will examine:
The Utah State Aggies' recent form and player performance
The UNLV Runnin' Rebels' recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Utah State Aggies
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the UNLV Runnin' Rebels
Recent betting trends in games played between the UNLV Runnin' Rebels and Utah State Aggies
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs Utah State Aggies game
Utah State Aggies Preview
The Utah State Aggies have a 25-6 record this season and were placed 3rd in the Mountain West. Utah State is coming off an 87-47 win over Air Force. The Aggies are 15-15 against the spread and 15-13-2 in over/under.
Offensively, Utah State is averaging 81.5 points per game, which is the 27th-best in the nation. Defensively, they allow 70.7 points per game (143rd). The Aggies shoot 49.5% from the field, which is the 8th-best in the nation, and 37.3% from beyond the arc (46th). The Aggies shoot with 70.6% from the free-throw line (240th), and are grabbing 31.1 rebounds per game (232nd).
Ian Martinez leads Utah State in scoring with an average of 16.9 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.8 assists, while Mason Falsley adds 14.7 points and team-highs both in rebounding with 6.1 and in assists made, with 3.7 per game.
UNLV Runnin' Rebels Preview
The UNLV Rebels have an 18-14 record this season and were placed 6th in the Mountain West. UNLV is coming off a 68-59 win over Air Force in the first round of the tournament last night. The Rebels are 13-18-1 against the spread and 13-18-1 in over/under.
Offensively, UNLV is averaging 69.6 points per game, which ranks 294th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 68.1 points per game (71st). The Rebels shoot 44.6% from the field (189th) and 33.9% from beyond the arc (185th). The Rebels shoot 71.3% from the free-throw line (201st) and are grabbing 31.2 rebounds per game (242nd).
Jalen Hill leads UNLV in scoring in the playoffs, with an average of 18 points and team-highs both in rebounding with 10 and in assists made with 7. Jailen Bedford and Jeremiah Cherry add 13 points per game apiece.
Why the Utah State Aggies will win
- UNLV has lost each of its last 12 Thursday games against the Mountain West Conference.
- Utah State has won 12 of its last 13 games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.
- UNLV has lost the first half in each of its last five games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.
Why the UNLV Runnin' Rebels will win
- UNLV has won four of its last five games.
- Utah State has lost the first half in each of its last four games played at neutral venues.
Total Points Facts
- Each of UNLV's last seven night games at Thomas & Mack Center has produced a total of 141 or fewer points.
- Eight of Utah State's last nine night games against the Mountain West Conference have produced a total of 145+ points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Utah State ranks 6th among Division 1 teams for assists per game this season (17.7).
- Utah State ranks 6th among Division 1 teams for assist-to-turnover ratio this season (1.66).
- UNLV ranks T28th among Division 1 teams for opponent steals per game this season (5.5).
UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs Utah State Aggies Prediction
Utah State is 7-1 in their last 8 meetings against UNLV, but UNLV is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 meetings. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings, and both teams are tied 1-1 wins this season, with each one winning at home. The Aggies won by 76-71 and the Rebels by 65-62, with UNLV covering the spread in both.
In this UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs Utah State Aggies Prediction, Utah State is coming as -7-point favorites. Utah State is rightfully favored, as they have a better record this season, had extra days of rest, and had more wins away from home than UNLV (7 to 5). Utah State is just 3-3 in their last 6 games and 5-5 against the spread in their last 10, while UNLV is 7-2 in their last 9 games and 3-2 against the spread. This is a big spread for an elimination game, as Utah State won by just 5 points in their only victory against UNLV this season. I expect another close game, so take the UNLV Runnin' Rebels and the +7 points in this one.
Nikos’s Pick UNLV Runnin' Rebels +7
AUTHOR: Nikos Lagouretos
