Toledo vs Troy Prediction College Basketball Picks 11/4/24

The Troy Trojans are hosting the Toledo Rockets on Monday, November 4th at the Trojan Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Toledo Rockets vs Troy Trojans Prediction.

Troy Trojans Preview

The Troy Trojans enter the upcoming season looking to build on a strong 20-12 record, finishing 3rd in the Sun Belt Conference with a 13-5 mark. Troy was dominating at home with a 15-2 record to go along with 11-2-1 ATS. They struggled slightly on the road, going 5-9. Trojans were 18-9-1 ATS and 16-12 in over/under.

The Trojans had a solid offense with 79.6 ppg, ranking them 43rd nationally, while their defense allowed 70.7 points per game (130th). They had a 44.1% field goal percentage (222nd) and were very effective from beyond the arc with a 35.1% three-point shooting percentage (69th). They converted 73.3% of their free throws.

Christyon Eugene led the Trojans with 15.1 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. Tayton Conerway added 11.8 points and 2.8 rebounds.

Toledo Rockets Preview

The Toledo Rockets finished last season with a solid 20-12 record, finishing 1st in the Mid-American Conference (MAC) with a 14-4 mark. Toledo had a 12-3 home record and an 8-5 road record (7-6 ATS). They were 15-16 ATS and 17-14 in over/under.

Offensively, the Rockets averaged an impressive 80.0 points per game, ranking them 39th nationally. Defensively, they allowed 76.1 points per game (297th). They had elite shooting percentages, hitting 47.8% from the field (26th) and 37.6% from beyond the arc (16th). They converted 75.4% of their free throws.

Dante Maddox led the Rockets with 15.6 points and 4.3 rebounds per game. Ra’Heim Moss made significant contributions, averaging 15.5 points and 5.4 rebounds.

Why the Troy Trojans will win

• Troy has won each of its last 11 day games at Trojan Arena.
• Toledo has lost four of its last five road day games against non-Conference opponents.
• Troy has won the first half in 17 of its last 18 games at Trojan Arena against non-AP-ranked opponents.

Why the Toledo Rockets will win

• Toledo has won seven of its last eight Monday games.
• Toledo has won the first half in each of its last seven Monday games against non-Conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Twenty-two of Troy’s last 23 day games against non-AP-ranked opponents at Trojan Arena have produced a total of 151 or fewer points.
• Each of Toledo’s last four road day games against non-Conference opponents have produced a total of 156+ points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Troy ranked 2nd among Division 1 teams for steals per game last season (10.3).
• Troy ranked 2nd among Division 1 teams for opponent assist to turnover ratio last season (0.70).
• Toledo ranked 354th among Division 1 teams for opponent field goal percentage last season (48.0%).
• Toledo ranked 16th among Division 1 teams for three-point percentage last season (37.6%).

Toledo Rockets vs Troy Trojans Prediction

In this Toledo Rockets vs Troy Trojans Prediction, Troy is coming as -4.5 point home favorites. Troy is projected at #137 ranking for this season, while Toledo at #166. Both teams had elite offenses last season, as they ranked 39th and 43rd in the nation with 159.6 total points combined. That is evident by their over/under records, as they went for 16-12 and 17-14 to the over. Trojans were 8-5-1 to the over at home last season, while the Rockets were 8-5 to the over on the road. Given the fact that Toledo struggled defensively last season, I’m expecting a high scoring game and taking the over the total in this one.