Virginia vs Louisville Prediction 10/4/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Virginia vs Louisville Prediction for this College Football Week 6 game on Saturday, October 4th at the L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Louisville Preview

Louisville has a 4-0 record this season and is sitting on the 4th place of the ACC. They are 1-3 ATS, 3-1 in Over/Under and have a 3-0 home record and 1-0 away record. The Cardinals are coming off a 34-27 road win in Pittsburgh and are playing Miami and Boston College next.

Offensively, the Cardinals average 38.2 points per game, which ranks 24th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 18.8 points per game, which is 37th. Louisville averages 409.3 total yards per game, with 130.3 rushing yards and 279 passing yards per game. They allow 268.3 total yards per game, with 117.5 rushing and 150.8 passing yards per game.

Miller Moss leads the Cardinals with 1029 passing yards and 65.6% completed passes. Isaac Brown leads the team in rushing yards, with 268, while Caullin Lacy has a team-high 23 caught passes for 332 receiving yards, and has 2 touchdowns. Defensively, TJ Quinn has a team-high 22 total tackles, 7 of them solo. Clev Lubin leads the Cardinals in sacks, with 3.5, while TJ Quinn has 2 interceptions.

Virginia Preview

Virginia has a 4-1 record this season and is sitting on the 2nd place of the ACC. They are 4-1 ATS, 5-0 in Over/Under and have a 4-0 home record and 0-1 away record. The Cavaliers are coming off a 46-38 home win against Florida State and are playing Washington State and North Carolina next.

Offensively, the Cavaliers average 45.6 points per game, which ranks 8th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 23.2 points per game, which is 69th. Virginia averages 539.6 total yards per game, with 243.4 rushing yards and 296.2 passing yards per game. They allow 353.6 total yards per game, with 131.4 rushing and 222.2 passing yards per game.

Chandler Morris leads the Cavaliers with 1279 passing yards and 71.6% completed passes. J’Mari Taylor leads the team in rushing yards, with 397, while Trell Harris has a team-high 21 caught passes for 366 receiving yards, and has 3 touchdowns. Defensively, Devin Neal has a team-high 26 total tackles, 9 of them solo. Daniel Rickert leads the Cavaliers in sacks, with 3.5, while Ethan Minter has one interception.

Virginia Cavaliers @ Louisville Cardinals Betting Trends: Week 6

Why the Louisville Cardinals will win

• Louisville has won each of its last seven games.
• Virginia has lost four of its last five road games.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of Virginia’s last six games.
• Virginia has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games as an underdog.
• Virginia has lost the first half in five of its last six road games against conference opponents.

Why the Virginia Cavaliers will win

• The team ranked 24th in the AP Poll has won five of its last six games.
• Louisville has lost 24 of its last 30 games against AP-ranked teams.
• Virginia has covered the spread in each of its last six October games as an underdog.
• Louisville has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six home games.
• Virginia has won the first quarter in each of its last three games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Virginia’s last seven road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Seven of Louisville’s last eight games as a favorite against teams from Virginia have gone UNDER the total points line.

Louisville Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Chris Bell has recorded 50+ receiving yards in eight consecutive games – equal-longest streak in the FBS, heading into Week 6.

Virginia Cavaliers Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 6, J’Mari Taylor leads the Atlantic Coast Conference for touchdowns (7) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Louisville has won the third quarter in each of its last seven games – longest active streak in the FBS.
• Louisville ranks T5th among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (62.5).
• Virginia has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 15+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
• Virginia has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 20+ points of any FBS team this season (3).

Virginia vs Louisville Prediction

In their previous meeting last season, Louisville won 24-20 on the road, not covering the spread, as the game went under the total. Louisville is 7-3 in their last 10 meetings against Virginia, and under is 7-2 in their last 9 meetings.

In this Virginia vs Louisville Prediction, Louisville is coming as -7.5-point home favorites, with the total set at 62.5 points. Both teams have been excellent this season, with Louisville being undefeated in their four games played, and Virginia having lost only once. Louisville has failed to cover the spread in all of their three home wins this season, and Virginia has a better offense, scoring 7.4 points per game more. Virginia also forced a close game last season, and I expect them to do so again today. Take Virginia and the +7.5 points in this one.