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Vanderbilt vs Alabama Prediction 10/4/2025 Today’s College Football Picks
Pick details
Vanderbilt (5-0) vs Alabama (3-1)
October 4, 2025 at 03:30 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Alabama -13.5 — Over/Under: +55.5
The Vanderbilt Commodores and the Alabama Crimson Tide meet Saturday in college football action from Bryant-Denny. Here’s a Vanderbilt vs Alabama prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Vanderbilt vs Alabama pick. We will examine:
The Vanderbilt Commodores recent form and player performance
The Alabama Crimson Tide recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Vanderbilt Commodores
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Alabama Crimson Tide
Recent betting trends in games played between Vanderbilt and Alabama
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Vanderbilt vs Alabama game
The Commodores got off to a good start this year, rattling off convincing wins in each of their first four games. Vanderbilt took out Charleston Southern 45-3 in their opener, then beat Virginia Tech 44-20 in game two. The South Carolina matchup was a 31-7 victory for the Commodores, who would then demolish Georgia State 70-21. Vanderbilt ended up with a whopping 635 yards in the win over the Panthers along with 8.9 yards per play and 30 first downs. The 10 penalties were just about the only things to complain about.
In the Utah State game last weekend, the Commodores gave up 14 points in two different quarters (but scored in every quarter themselves, including 24 in the second alone) during a 55-35 victory. QB Diego Pavia had a 26-of-34 line for 321 yards, five touchdowns and an interception while also leading the rush on 79 yards and a touchdown from nine carries. Junior Sherrill led the receivers with his six catches for 91 yards and three scores.
Over on the Alabama side, they had an unenviable opening matchup on the road versus Florida State. That one turned into a 31-17 loss, but the Crimson Tide would bounce back with a 73-0 blowout victory over Louisiana-Monroe in the next game. On September 13 Alabama kept it going, dispatching Wisconsin 38-14. The Tide bagged 454 yards and 8.7 yards per play in that one, but only had 72 rushing yards along the way. On defense Alabama gave up just 209 total yards and 14 first downs along with a couple of interceptions.
Matched up against Georgia last Saturday evening, the Tide jumped out to a 24-14 lead by the break and didn’t score after halftime. That said, it was good enough for a hard-fought 24-21 road victory. QB Ty Simpson was 24-of-38 for 276 yards and two touchdowns, and Isaiah Horton caught five balls for 65 yards and a score. Jamarion Miller carried 16 times for 46 yards as the team’s leading rusher.
Heading into Week 6, Bray Hubbard leads the Southeastern Conference for interceptions (2) this season.
Heading into Week 6, Bryce Cowan leads the Southeastern Conference for forced fumbles (2) this season.
Alabama ranks T12th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+8.8).
Alabama ranks T14th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (10.5).
Vanderbilt ranks 1st among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (24.0).
Vanderbilt has averaged 62.5 points over its last two games – most in the FBS over that span.
I’ll lean toward Vanderbilt, but this should be a pretty interesting game regardless. The Commodores gave up a decent amount of production to Utah State last weekend via 393 total yards (274 passing), 6.2 yards per play and 21 first downs. The 5-of-14 success rate on third downs helped buoy the defense though, and the O did the rest. Vanderbilt tallied 543 yards themselves alongside 222 rush yards, 8.4 yards per play, 31 first downs and 5-of-8 on third-down conversions. That makes 31 or more points in all five games this season and 44 or more points in four of those five. Vanderbilt’s offense is cooking right now.
As for Alabama, they’re riding high this week after a great road win versus an excellent Georgia team. The Tide were awesome on third downs in the victory, posting a 13-of-19 success rate. The defense did give up 227 rush yards, but also held the Bulldogs to just 2-of-8 on third downs. Alabama is going to be fired up this weekend, but I like Vanderbilt to power out a cover in a fun game to watch. Should be a good one.
The Vanderbilt Commodores recent form and player performance
The Alabama Crimson Tide recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Vanderbilt Commodores
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Alabama Crimson Tide
Recent betting trends in games played between Vanderbilt and Alabama
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Vanderbilt vs Alabama game
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview
The Commodores got off to a good start this year, rattling off convincing wins in each of their first four games. Vanderbilt took out Charleston Southern 45-3 in their opener, then beat Virginia Tech 44-20 in game two. The South Carolina matchup was a 31-7 victory for the Commodores, who would then demolish Georgia State 70-21. Vanderbilt ended up with a whopping 635 yards in the win over the Panthers along with 8.9 yards per play and 30 first downs. The 10 penalties were just about the only things to complain about.
In the Utah State game last weekend, the Commodores gave up 14 points in two different quarters (but scored in every quarter themselves, including 24 in the second alone) during a 55-35 victory. QB Diego Pavia had a 26-of-34 line for 321 yards, five touchdowns and an interception while also leading the rush on 79 yards and a touchdown from nine carries. Junior Sherrill led the receivers with his six catches for 91 yards and three scores.
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview
Over on the Alabama side, they had an unenviable opening matchup on the road versus Florida State. That one turned into a 31-17 loss, but the Crimson Tide would bounce back with a 73-0 blowout victory over Louisiana-Monroe in the next game. On September 13 Alabama kept it going, dispatching Wisconsin 38-14. The Tide bagged 454 yards and 8.7 yards per play in that one, but only had 72 rushing yards along the way. On defense Alabama gave up just 209 total yards and 14 first downs along with a couple of interceptions.
Matched up against Georgia last Saturday evening, the Tide jumped out to a 24-14 lead by the break and didn’t score after halftime. That said, it was good enough for a hard-fought 24-21 road victory. QB Ty Simpson was 24-of-38 for 276 yards and two touchdowns, and Isaiah Horton caught five balls for 65 yards and a score. Jamarion Miller carried 16 times for 46 yards as the team’s leading rusher.
Vanderbilt Commodores @ Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Trends: Week 6
Alabama Crimson Tide Player Prop Facts
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Heading into Week 6, Bray Hubbard leads the Southeastern Conference for interceptions (2) this season.
Vanderbilt Commodores Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 6, Bryce Cowan leads the Southeastern Conference for forced fumbles (2) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
Alabama ranks T12th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+8.8).
Alabama ranks T14th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (10.5).
Vanderbilt ranks 1st among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (24.0).
Vanderbilt has averaged 62.5 points over its last two games – most in the FBS over that span.
Vanderbilt vs Alabama Prediction
I’ll lean toward Vanderbilt, but this should be a pretty interesting game regardless. The Commodores gave up a decent amount of production to Utah State last weekend via 393 total yards (274 passing), 6.2 yards per play and 21 first downs. The 5-of-14 success rate on third downs helped buoy the defense though, and the O did the rest. Vanderbilt tallied 543 yards themselves alongside 222 rush yards, 8.4 yards per play, 31 first downs and 5-of-8 on third-down conversions. That makes 31 or more points in all five games this season and 44 or more points in four of those five. Vanderbilt’s offense is cooking right now.
As for Alabama, they’re riding high this week after a great road win versus an excellent Georgia team. The Tide were awesome on third downs in the victory, posting a 13-of-19 success rate. The defense did give up 227 rush yards, but also held the Bulldogs to just 2-of-8 on third downs. Alabama is going to be fired up this weekend, but I like Vanderbilt to power out a cover in a fun game to watch. Should be a good one.
