Utah State vs New Mexico Prediction 10/25/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a Utah State vs New Mexico prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 25th at University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 9 matchup. 

Utah State Aggies Betting Preview

The Utah State Aggies are 4-3 (2-1) this year after they defeated San Jose State by a score of 30-25 last week. Utah State trailed 25-24 in the fourth quarter, but they kicked two field goals in the last six minutes for the win. The Aggies were out gained by a total of 534-461, went 5-16 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Bryson Barnes went 22-31 for 326 yards and one touchdown, while also rushing for 54 yards and one score. Anthony Garcia led the receivers with three receptions for 121 yards and one touchdown in the win. The Utah State defense recorded zero sacks and one tackle for loss in the game. 

Prior to that game, Utah State lost to Hawaii by a score of 44-26 and Vanderbilt by a score of 55-35. The Aggies have lost two of their last three games and they are currently tied for fourth in the Mountain West standings. Utah State has scored 34.0 points per game with 265.6 passing yards and 162.9 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 31.6 points against per game this season. Bryson Barnes has thrown for 1,644 yards, 13 touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Braden Pegan has 34 receptions for 546 yards and four scores this year. 

New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview

The New Mexico Lobos are 4-3 (1-2) this season after they defeated Nevada by a score of 24-22 in their last game. New Mexico led 14-12 at halftime and they were able to get the win, but failed to score in the fourth quarter. The Lobos out gained Nevada by a total of 348-257, went 5-13 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 2-0 in the game. Jack Layne went 14-22 for 138 yards, while also rushing for 71 yards on eight carries. Dorian Thomas led the receivers with five receptions for 56 yards in the win. The UNM defense recorded one sack and five tackles for loss in the game. 

Prior to that win, New Mexico lost to Boise State by a score of 41-25 and San Jose State by a score of 35-28. The Lobos have lost two of their last three games and they are currently near the bottom of the Mountain West standings. New Mexico has scored 28.4 points per game with 218.9 passing yards and 147.3 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 26.3 points against per game this season. Jack Layne has thrown for 1,415 yards, eight touchdowns, and eight interceptions, while Dorian Thomas has 37 receptions for 404 yards and four scores this season. 

Why the New Mexico Lobos will win

Utah State has lost eight of its last nine road games.
The home team has won eight of New Mexico’s last nine games.
Utah State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last nine October road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
The home team has covered the spread in three of New Mexico’s last four games.

Total Points Facts

Seven of Utah State’s last eight road games have gone OVER the total points line.
Six of New Mexico’s last seven October games as a home favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

New Mexico ranks T20th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (9.9).
New Mexico ranks T116th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (256.3).
Utah State ranks 131st among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (12.0).
Utah State ranks 8th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (10.1).

Utah State vs New Mexico Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this matchup after losing two of their last three games, but they both did win last weekend. Utah State has had a solid offensive attack this year, but they have allowed 30+ points in three of their last five games. New Mexico has also had some defensive struggles this season, but their offense stalled out multiple times last week against Nevada. This should be an entertaining game with plenty of points, but I have to side with New Mexico, as I believe they are the better defensive team. Take the Lobos at home. 

David Racey is 80-61 (57%) in College Football this season and is one of the top College Football Handicappers on the site. Click here for his premium plays for the week!