UL Monroe vs Mississippi State Prediction 9/5/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

The UL Monroe Warhawks and Mississippi State Bulldogs meet Saturday in college football action at Davis Wade Stadium. Here’s a UL Monroe vs Mississippi State Prediction. This article will include a UL Monroe vs Mississippi State Pick.

UL Monroe Warhawks Betting Preview

UL Monroe won three games last season and enters year three under coach Bryant Vincent. UL Monroe is still looking for its first bowl appearance since the 2012 season.

Aidan Armenta returns at quarterback after throwing for 1,629 yards and 12 touchdowns. Running back Don Chaney comes over from Louisville, and there’s a stable offensive line in place. New offensive coordinator Jesse Montalto has pieces to work with this season. Defensively, Noah Flemmings returns after leading the Warhawks with 80 tackles, and James Smith is a veteran along the defensive line. There’s a lot of new faces on this team overall, but there’s a proven quarterback and a defense with leadership. UL Monroe has a chance to be more competitive than past seasons. 

Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview

Mississippi State won five games last season and enters the third season under coach Jeff Lebby. Mississippi State has won no more than five games in each of the last three seasons.

After 77 pass attempts last season, dual-threat quarterback Kamario Taylor becomes the full-time starter. Fluff Bothwell is back after leading the Bulldogs in rushing yards, and receiver Anthony Evans III had 4 touchdowns. Marquis Johnson comes over from Missouri, but the offensive line replaces four of five starters. Defensively, cornerback Kelley Jones is getting NFL love, while safety Isaac Smith was one of the team’s better players last season. There are concerns in the trenches for Mississippi State, but the defense has legit pro talent, and Taylor is an athlete who could go crazy. Mississippi State is an afterthought in the SEC, but there’s a world where this team pushes for a bowl appearance.

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs will win

• Louisiana-Monroe has lost each of its last 18 road games against opponents from the Southeastern Conference.
• Mississippi State has won 16 of its last 17 games against non-conference opponents at Davis Wade Stadium.
• Louisiana-Monroe has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six road openers as an underdog.
• Mississippi State has covered the spread in each of its last four home openers.
• Louisiana-Monroe has lost the first half in 13 of its last 14 road games in September.

Why the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks will win

• Louisiana-Monroe has won five of its last seven September games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Mississippi State has lost each of its last four games.
• The road team has covered the spread in each of Louisiana-Monroe’s last four games.
• Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games against teams from Louisiana.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Louisiana-Monroe’s last five road games against non-conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of Mississippi State’s last six games have gone OVER the total points line.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts

• Ethan Pulliam ranked 1st in the Southeastern Conference amongst qualified players for gross average yards per punt (46.8) last season.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Player Prop Facts

• Nic Trujillo led Louisiana-Monroe for yards per reception (16.0) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Mississippi State ranked T8th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game last season (8.9).
• Mississippi State ranked 128th among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game last season (16.2).
• Louisiana-Monroe ranked 131st among FBS teams for H2 points per game last season (7.9).
• Louisiana-Monroe ranked 131st among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game last season (16.5).

UL Monroe vs Mississippi State Prediction

If Mississippi State is going to push for a bowl appearance and make this a successful season, it has to set the tone in a game like this. UL Monroe was awful a year ago and had games where it couldn’t find any sort of offense cosnsitency. Starkville is still a tough place to play, and Mississippi State has a couple of top-of-the-line defenders. Thick line, but Mississippi State shouldn’t play with its food and get a comfortable home win here.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Mississippi State -28.5