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UCLA vs Michigan State Prediction 10/11/2025 Today’s College Football Picks
Pick details
UCLA (1-4) vs Michigan State (3-2)
October 11, 2025 at 12:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Michigan State -8.5 — Over/Under: +55.5
The UCLA Bruins and Michigan State Spartans meet Saturday in college football action at Spartan Stadium. Here’s a UCLA vs Michigan State Prediction. This article will include a UCLA vs Michigan State Pick.
The UCLA Bruins lost to Northwestern, beat Penn State, and they play Maryland next. UCLA has lost 6 of its last 8 games. Nico Iamaleava is completing 66.2 percent of his passes for 954 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Kwazi Gilmer and Mikey Matthews have combined for 432 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, while Titus Mokiao-Atimalala has 11 receptions.
The UCLA Bruins ground game is averaging 153.2 yards per contest, and Nico Iamaleava leads the way with 332 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, UCLA is allowing 32.4 points and 392.8 yards per game. JonJon Vaughns leads the UCLA Bruins with 54 tackles, Anthony Jones has 1.5 sacks and Cole Martin has 2 pass deflections.
The Michigan State Spartans lost to USC and Nebraska and plays Indiana next. The Michigan State Spartans have split their last 8 games. Aidan Chiles is completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 953 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Nick Marsh and Omari Kelly have combined for 589 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, while Chrishon McCray has 8 receptions.
The Michigan State Spartans ground game is averaging 140 yards per contest, and Makhi Frazier leads the way with 325 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Michigan State is allowing 30.6 points and 359.4 yards per game. Jordan Hall leads the Michigan State Spartans with 38 tackles, Malik Spencer has 2 sacks and Armorion Smith has 1 interception.
Michigan State isn’t good enough to be laying these sorts of numbers, as the offense lacks difference makers and the defense is in rough shape. The problem is, UCLA is that bad that it probably doesn’t matter. Yes, UCLA is coming off a massive upset over Penn State, but one win doesn’t erase a mountain of garbage. If anything, that win creates a letdown spot for UCLA. To be fair, UCLA has covered 5 straight games when underdogs of 7 or more points, but I just can’t get there with the Bruins. Give me Michigan State in a comfortable home victory.
UCLA Bruins Betting Preview
The UCLA Bruins lost to Northwestern, beat Penn State, and they play Maryland next. UCLA has lost 6 of its last 8 games. Nico Iamaleava is completing 66.2 percent of his passes for 954 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Kwazi Gilmer and Mikey Matthews have combined for 432 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, while Titus Mokiao-Atimalala has 11 receptions.
The UCLA Bruins ground game is averaging 153.2 yards per contest, and Nico Iamaleava leads the way with 332 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, UCLA is allowing 32.4 points and 392.8 yards per game. JonJon Vaughns leads the UCLA Bruins with 54 tackles, Anthony Jones has 1.5 sacks and Cole Martin has 2 pass deflections.
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview
The Michigan State Spartans lost to USC and Nebraska and plays Indiana next. The Michigan State Spartans have split their last 8 games. Aidan Chiles is completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 953 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Nick Marsh and Omari Kelly have combined for 589 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, while Chrishon McCray has 8 receptions.
The Michigan State Spartans ground game is averaging 140 yards per contest, and Makhi Frazier leads the way with 325 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Michigan State is allowing 30.6 points and 359.4 yards per game. Jordan Hall leads the Michigan State Spartans with 38 tackles, Malik Spencer has 2 sacks and Armorion Smith has 1 interception.
Why the Michigan State Spartans will win
- Michigan State has won eight of its last nine home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- UCLA has lost each of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- UCLA has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Michigan State has covered the spread in four of its last five October home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Michigan State has won the first quarter in three of its last four home games against conference opponents.
- UCLA has lost the first half in three of its last four games against conference opponents.
Why the UCLA Bruins will win
- UCLA has won four of its last five October games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Michigan State has lost seven of its last eight games in October.
- The road team has covered the spread in each of Michigan State’s last seven games.
- Michigan State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven games as a favorite.
- Michigan State has lost the first half in six of its last seven games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Michigan State’s last seven home games in October have gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of UCLA’s last six games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
Michigan State Spartans Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 7, Ryan Eckley ranks 1st amongst qualified players for gross average yards per punt (52.5) this season.
UCLA Bruins Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 7, Nico Iamaleava leads UCLA for touchdowns (4) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Michigan State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of five points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
- Michigan State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
- UCLA has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of five points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
- UCLA ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
UCLA vs Michigan State Prediction
Michigan State isn’t good enough to be laying these sorts of numbers, as the offense lacks difference makers and the defense is in rough shape. The problem is, UCLA is that bad that it probably doesn’t matter. Yes, UCLA is coming off a massive upset over Penn State, but one win doesn’t erase a mountain of garbage. If anything, that win creates a letdown spot for UCLA. To be fair, UCLA has covered 5 straight games when underdogs of 7 or more points, but I just can’t get there with the Bruins. Give me Michigan State in a comfortable home victory.
