UCF vs Texas Tech Prediction 11/15/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

The UCF Knights and the Texas Tech Red Raiders meet in week 12 college football action from Jones AT&T Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a UCF Knights vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders prediction.

UCF Knights Recap

The UCF Knights come into this game looking to bounce back from a 30-27 loss at the hands of Houston last time out to sit at 4-5 this season. After this game, UCF will head home for a game against Oklahoma State.

UCF Lose 5 Of Last 6

Tayven Jackson has thrown for 1,470 yards, 5 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 61.8% passing while Cam Fancher’s thrown for 333 yards on 56.9% passing. Myles Montgomery leads UCF in rushing with 595 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns and Jaden Nixon has 485 rushing yards with 7 touchdowns this season. Duane Thomas Jr. leads the Knights’ receiving group with 40 grabs for 402 yards while Dylan Wade has 29 catches for 302 yards and a touchdown. DJ Black has 187 receiving yards with 2 TDs while five more Knights have 100+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Lewis Carter leads the Knights with 63 total tackles while Malachi Lawrence has a team-high 7 sacks and Phillip Dunham has a team-high 3 interceptions this season. As a unit, UCF’s defense has combined for 21 sacks and 8 interceptions so far this season.

Texas Tech Red Raiders Recap

The Texas Tech Red Raiders come into this game looking to build on their 29-7 win over BYU last time out to sit at 9-1 this season. After this game, Texas Tech will have a bye before closing out the regular season at West Virginia.

Red Raiders Win 3 Straight

Behren Morton has thrown for 1,969 yards, 16 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 65.7% passing while Will Hammond has thrown for 680 yards, 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions so far this season. Cameron Dickey leads the Red Raiders in rushing with 867 rushing yards and 11 TDs and J’Koby Williams has 602 rushing yards and 5 TDs. Hammond also has 299 rushing yards with 5 TDs and Adam Hill has 212 rushing yards as well on the year. Caleb Douglas leads Texas Tech with 43 catches for 606 yards and 5 touchdowns while Coy Eakin has 512 receiving yards and 4 TDs. Reggie Virgil has 489 receiving yards, 40 catches and 5 touchdowns while Terrance Carter Jr. has 419 receiving yards and 5 TDs. On defense, Jacob Rodriguez leads the Red Raiders in tackles with 88 including 48 solo tackles and 3 interceptions while Brice Pollock has a team-high 4 interceptions and David Bailey has a team-high 11.5 sacks. As a unit, Texas Tech’s defense has combined for 29 sacks and 11 interceptions so far this season.

UCF Knights @ Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Trends: Week 12

Why the Texas Tech Red Raiders will win

• Texas Tech has won each of its last 10 November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• UCF has lost each of its last seven road games.
• The favorite has covered the spread in each of Texas Tech’s last eight games at Jones AT&T Stadium.
• UCF has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games in November.
• Texas Tech has won the first quarter in each of its last five home games against conference opponents.
• Texas Tech has won the first half in nine of its last 10 games against conference opponents.

Why the UCF Knights will win

• UCF has won four of its last five November games against AP-ranked teams.
• UCF has covered the spread in each of its last four November games against AP-ranked teams.
• The team ranked 8th in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in 11 of its last 14 games.

Total Points Facts

• Five of Texas Tech’s last six November games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Four of UCF’s last five road games against AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Texas Tech Red Raiders Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 12, David Bailey ranks 1st amongst FBS players for sacks (11.5) this season.

UCF Knights Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 12, Cameron Fancher has the most pass attempts without a passing touchdown this season (72).

Matchup/League Facts

• Texas Tech has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 10+ points of any FBS team this season (6).
• Texas Tech has recorded the most home wins by a margin of 15+ points of any FBS team this season (6).
• UCF ranks T10th among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (2.3).
• UCF ranks 12th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (168.2).

UCF Knights vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction

I’m on Texas Tech here. I wonder at what point the Red Raiders prioritize health to focus on being in peak condition for the Big 12 title game, but they do have a bye week next week so I expect a full effort here as a win pretty much clinches the spot or at least goes a long way towards it. UCF just has QB issues and I expect this Texas Tech defense to feast on the Knights in this matchup. Give me Texas Tech here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Texas Tech -23.5