UCF vs Kansas State Prediction 9/27/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

UCF and Kansas State meet Saturday in Week 5 college football action from Bill Snyder Family Stadium. Here’s a UCF vs Kansas State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best UCF Knights vs Kansas State Wildcats pick. We will examine:

The UCF Knights’ recent form and player performance
The Kansas State Wildcats’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Wildcats
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Knights
Recent betting trends in games played between UCF and Kansas State
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the UCF vs Kansas State game.

Kansas State Might Just Be Bad

Kansas State really looks like a team that might just be bad, and coming into this game they sit with a 1-3 record. The only win for Kansas State came against North Dakota, and even in that game they almost blew it late. In the last game against Arizona, Kansas State scored 14 points in the third quarter, but managed only three points in the other three quarters, ultimately leading to defeat. Avery Johnson completed only 13 of his 29 passes for 88 yards. Jayce Brown had one long run for 75 yards, but the top running back outside of him was Antonio Martin Jr. who finished with five runs for 17 yards. 

Kansas State on the season, is averaging 24.25 points while their defense is giving up 26.5 points per game. The offense is ranked 91st in the league while the defense is ranked 86th. Kansas State needs to figure out what to do with Avery Johnson. He clearly has issues throwing the ball, but he’s still dynamic with his legs. They really need to make the offense fit more to that, instead of just trying to fit him into an offense that clearly isn’t working. 

How Good is UCF?

If the first three games are any indication, UCF could be a real player in the Big 12, but this is a game they can’t lose if they want that to be the case. UCF currently sits with a 3-0 record and the closest game was a seven-point victory over Jacksonville State in the first game. Two games ago, against NC A&T, UCF was able to knock them off 68-7. In the last game against North Carolina, UCF scored 34 points, and they ended up winning by 25 points. Under center for the Knights was Tayven Jackson, and he completed 25 of his 32 passes for 223 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions. He also rushed 10 times for 66 yards and a touchdown. 

Central Florida on the season, is averaging 39.67 points while their defense is giving up 8.67 points per game. The offense is ranked 28th while the defense is ranked 6th best in the league. In this game, if the defense can be strong again and slow down Avery Johnson, this is a game that they should win. 

Matchup/League Facts

• Kansas State ranks 133rd among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (24:23).
• Kansas State ranks T124th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (56).
• UCF ranks T2nd among FBS teams for H1 opponent points per game this season (1.0).
• UCF ranks T2nd among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (50.0).

UCF vs Kansas State Prediction 

You want me to lay any sort of points with this Kansas State team, given how they have played heading into this game? Yeah, I don’t think so. Kansas State still refuses to use Avery Johnson the right way, and he’s just not a very good passer. He continues to miss wide-open receivers, and the Wildcats are going to struggle to move the ball here. UCF on the season is averaging 39.67 points per game, and although they might not reach that number here, they are going to attack the Kansas State defense. Not only is UCF going to cover the spread, but they are going to win this game outright. You aren’t going to need to take the points, just take them straight up. Back UCF on the money line.