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Troy vs Texas State Prediction 10/11/2025 Today’s College Football Picks
Pick details
| MATCHUP | Troy Trojans | Texas State Bobcats |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Where | Bobcat Stadium (TX), San Marcos, TX | |
| When | Saturday, October 11, 2025 | |
| Time | 08:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | ESPN+ | |
The Troy Trojans and the Texas State Bobcats meet Saturday in college football action from UFCU Stadium. Here’s a Troy vs Texas State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Troy vs Texas State pick. We will examine:
The Troy Trojans recent form and player performance
The Texas State Bobcats recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Troy Trojans
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Texas State Bobcats
Recent betting trends in games played between Troy and Texas State
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Troy vs Texas State game
Troy Trojans Betting Preview
The Trojans had some struggles over their first four games this year, stumbling to a .500 record at 2-2 overall. Troy beat Nicholls 38-20 in the opener then fell to Clemson 27-16 and Memphis 28-7. Win number two was a close one as Troy dispatched Buffalo on the road 21-17. In that one the Trojans mustered 365 yards with 22 first downs and 10-of-21 on third-down tries but did have a couple of turnovers.
In their matchup versus South Alabama last weekend, the Trojans were up 14-7 by the break. Troy faltered a bit in the second however, and had to go to overtime. When the dust settled, Troy had a hard-fought 31-24 victory. QB Tucker Kilcrease finished with 13-of-21 for 203 yards, one pick and two scores. Kilcrease also led the rush with 19 carries for 102 yards and another TD, while Tray Taylor had the top receiver honors with two grabs for 74 yards total.
Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview
Over on the Texas State side, they were able to carve out a winning record at 3-1 through their first four games. The Bobcats blew past Eastern Michigan 52-27 in the opener then beat UTSA 43-36 in game two. The Arizona State matchup was Texas State’s first loss 34-15 on the road, but then came a 35-3 blowout win over Nicholls. In the victory versus the Colonels the Bobcats managed to put up 401 total yards, 207 rush yards, 25 first downs and a nice 11-of-14 effort on third-down conversion attempts.
Matched up against Arkansas State on Saturday the Bobcats were in a 10-10 deadlock by the end of the third quarter. Following a wild final frame, Texas State came out on the losing end of a 31-30 result. QB Brad Jackson logged 230 yards with one TD on 18-of-26 passing and also was the top rusher on 10 carries for 131 yards and a TD. Lincoln Pare had 21 carries for 105 yards and two touchdowns, and top receiver Beau Sparks had three catches for 58 yards.
Troy Trojans @ Texas State Bobcats Betting Trends: Week 7
Texas State Bobcats Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 7, Brad Jackson leads the Sun Belt Conference for touchdowns (6) this season.
Troy Trojans Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 7, Tae Meadows leads Troy for touchdowns (3) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
Texas State ranks 14th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (235.0).
Texas State ranks 119th among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game this season (182.0).
Troy ranks T8th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (25.0).
Troy ranks T124th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (8.2).
Troy vs Texas State Prediction
I’ll take a stab on Troy but I’m probably not touching it. The Trojans had a spotty game in their win over South Alabama last weekend, notching 420 yards (203 passing), 6.4 yards per play, 20 first downs, 5-of-15 on third-down tries and two turnovers. The defense held the Jags to just 104 passing yards but also gave up 8-of-17 on third downs and didn’t get any takeaways. Troy has scored 21 or more points in consecutive games now (both wins) following 16 or fewer in the previous two games (both losses).
As for Texas State, they ended up with 519 yards (289 rushing), 22 first downs and a tepid 5-of-13 on third downs in their wild loss to Arkansas State. The Bobcats have bagged 30 or more points in four of five games so far this year, going 3-1 in that quartet. Troy is going to have to step on the proverbial gas offensively in this one, but I think the Trojans realistically can keep a cover pace if all goes well.
