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Troy vs Buffalo Prediction 9/20/2025 Today’s College Football Picks
Pick details
Troy (1-2) vs Buffalo (2-1)
September 20, 2025 at 03:30 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Buffalo -7 — Over/Under: +42.5
The Troy Trojans and the Buffalo Bulls meet Saturday in college football action from UB Stadium. Here’s a Troy vs Buffalo prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Troy vs Buffalo pick. We will examine:
The Troy Trojans recent form and player performance
The Buffalo Bulls recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Troy Trojans
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Buffalo Bulls
Recent betting trends in games played between Troy and Buffalo
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Troy vs Buffalo game
The Trojans opened up their 2025 campaign with a home game versus Nicholls. Troy got it going pretty well in that one, eventually winning 38-20 in the end. Game two was much more difficult however, as the Trojans hit the road to see Clemson. Troy put up a valiant effort in the first half, heading to the locker room with a 16-3 edge. The Trojans wouldn’t score again though, losing 27-16. QB Will Crowder had 223 yards, one score and three picks on the day. Tops in rushing was Tae Meadows with 76 yards on 16 totes, while Tray Taylor had four catches for 69 yards and a touchdown.
In their game versus Memphis last weekend, Troy was down 21-7 by the end of the first half and didn’t score again during a 28-7 loss. QB Tucker Kilcrease was 10-of-29 for 65 yards and an interception, while Jordan Lovett carried eight times for 50 yards. Roman Mothershed caught eight balls for 58 yards to lead the receivers.
Over on the Buffalo side, they started out the year with a tough road game versus Minnesota on August 28. The Bulls ended up losing that one 23-10. Game two went better however, as Buffalo went home to see St. Francis PA. The Bulls scored points in every quarter on the way to a 45-6 blowout win. QB Ta’Quan Roberson was 10-of-20 for 133 yards, one TD and one pick but also had 88 rush yards and two scores. Al-Jay Henderson rushed 24 times for 98 yards and two touchdowns, while Victor Snow led the receivers on three grabs for 67 yards and a TD.
Matched up against Kent State on Saturday, Buffalo gave up a touchdown in each quarter but ended up powering out a 31-28 win in the end. Roberson was 28-of-40 for 318 yards, three scores and a pick this time. Henderson notched 15 carries for 75 yards and a rush touchdown, and Nik McMillan caught six balls for 111 yards and a touchdown. Chance Morrow wasn’t far behind on six catches for 99 yards and a touchdown of his own.
Heading into Week 4, Al-Jay Henderson leads the Mid-American Conference for rush attempts (50) this season.
Heading into Week 4, Donnie Smith leads the Sun Belt Conference for forced fumbles (1) this season.
Buffalo ranks T13th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+8.3).
Buffalo ranks 111th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (27:10).
Troy ranks T128th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (-7.0).
Troy ranks 120th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (146.3).
I’ll likely stay with Buffalo, but I’m also likely not touching this one. Neither team looked all that great last weekend. The Bulls posted a pretty healthy 467 yards (318 passing) in their win over Kent State but also had a couple of turnovers and went just 5-of-12 on third downs. On defense Buffalo gave up 423 yards (279 passing) and 20 first downs. Still, the Bulls have a couple of high-scoring wins over the last two games; they’ve posted a combined 76 points in that pair.
As for Troy, they weren’t in the same league with Memphis in their last game. The Trojans mustered just 112 total yards (72 passing), 2.0 yards per play and 12 first downs in the defeat. On defense Troy gave up 430 yards (217 rushing), 6.0 yards per play and 22 first downs. The good news for the Trojans however, is that they’re getting a comparatively easier matchup this week following two tough ones (Clemson and Memphis) in the last two.
The Troy Trojans recent form and player performance
The Buffalo Bulls recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Troy Trojans
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Buffalo Bulls
Recent betting trends in games played between Troy and Buffalo
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Troy vs Buffalo game
Troy Trojans Betting Preview
The Trojans opened up their 2025 campaign with a home game versus Nicholls. Troy got it going pretty well in that one, eventually winning 38-20 in the end. Game two was much more difficult however, as the Trojans hit the road to see Clemson. Troy put up a valiant effort in the first half, heading to the locker room with a 16-3 edge. The Trojans wouldn’t score again though, losing 27-16. QB Will Crowder had 223 yards, one score and three picks on the day. Tops in rushing was Tae Meadows with 76 yards on 16 totes, while Tray Taylor had four catches for 69 yards and a touchdown.
In their game versus Memphis last weekend, Troy was down 21-7 by the end of the first half and didn’t score again during a 28-7 loss. QB Tucker Kilcrease was 10-of-29 for 65 yards and an interception, while Jordan Lovett carried eight times for 50 yards. Roman Mothershed caught eight balls for 58 yards to lead the receivers.
Buffalo Bulls Betting Preview
Over on the Buffalo side, they started out the year with a tough road game versus Minnesota on August 28. The Bulls ended up losing that one 23-10. Game two went better however, as Buffalo went home to see St. Francis PA. The Bulls scored points in every quarter on the way to a 45-6 blowout win. QB Ta’Quan Roberson was 10-of-20 for 133 yards, one TD and one pick but also had 88 rush yards and two scores. Al-Jay Henderson rushed 24 times for 98 yards and two touchdowns, while Victor Snow led the receivers on three grabs for 67 yards and a TD.
Matched up against Kent State on Saturday, Buffalo gave up a touchdown in each quarter but ended up powering out a 31-28 win in the end. Roberson was 28-of-40 for 318 yards, three scores and a pick this time. Henderson notched 15 carries for 75 yards and a rush touchdown, and Nik McMillan caught six balls for 111 yards and a touchdown. Chance Morrow wasn’t far behind on six catches for 99 yards and a touchdown of his own.
Troy Trojans @ Buffalo Bulls Betting Trends: Week 4
Buffalo Bulls Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 4, Al-Jay Henderson leads the Mid-American Conference for rush attempts (50) this season.
Troy Trojans Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 4, Donnie Smith leads the Sun Belt Conference for forced fumbles (1) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
Buffalo ranks T13th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+8.3).
Buffalo ranks 111th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (27:10).
Troy ranks T128th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (-7.0).
Troy ranks 120th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (146.3).
Troy vs Buffalo Prediction
I’ll likely stay with Buffalo, but I’m also likely not touching this one. Neither team looked all that great last weekend. The Bulls posted a pretty healthy 467 yards (318 passing) in their win over Kent State but also had a couple of turnovers and went just 5-of-12 on third downs. On defense Buffalo gave up 423 yards (279 passing) and 20 first downs. Still, the Bulls have a couple of high-scoring wins over the last two games; they’ve posted a combined 76 points in that pair.
As for Troy, they weren’t in the same league with Memphis in their last game. The Trojans mustered just 112 total yards (72 passing), 2.0 yards per play and 12 first downs in the defeat. On defense Troy gave up 430 yards (217 rushing), 6.0 yards per play and 22 first downs. The good news for the Trojans however, is that they’re getting a comparatively easier matchup this week following two tough ones (Clemson and Memphis) in the last two.
