Troy vs Arkansas State Prediction College Football Picks 10/26/24

In this article, we will formulate a Troy vs Arkansas State prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 26th at Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Arkansas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 9 matchup. 

Troy Trojans Betting Preview

The Troy Trojans are 1-6 (0-3) this year after they lost to South Alabama by a score of 25-9 in their last game. Troy trailed 19-3 at halftime and they were never able to get back into the game. The Trojans were outgained by a total of 318-167, lost the turnover battle 3-0, and went 4-14 on third down in the game. Matthew Caldwell threw for 142 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, while Devonte Ross caught seven passes for 70 yards and one score. 

Troy also has losses against Nevada, Memphis, Iowa, ULM, and Texas State, but they do have one win against Florida A&M. The Troy offense has scored 19 points per game with 192.7 passing yards and 115.9 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 27.4 points against per game this season. The Trojans have gone 44.7% on third down and 3-9 on fourth down so far this season. The Troy quarterback situation has been less than ideal this year, but Damien Taylor has led the team with 422 rushing yards and two scores. 

Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 4-3 (2-1) this season after they defeated Southern Miss by a score of 44-28 in their last game. Arkansas State led 21-7 after the first quarter and 28-21 at the half, and they were able to pull away in the second half for the win. The Red Wolves outgained Southern Miss by a total of 467-369, won the turnover battle 3-0, and went 3-14 on third down in the game. Jaylen Raynor threw for 186 yards and three touchdowns, while Ja’Quez Cross rushed for 127 yards and one score. 

Arkansas State also has wins over Central Arkansas, Tulsa, and South Alabama, but they have three losses against Michigan, Iowa State, and Texas State. The Arkansas State offense has scored 25.1 points per game with 236.6 passing yards and 131.6 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 31.4 points per game this season. The Red Wolves have gone 39.3% on third down and 9-11 on third down through seven games. Jaylen Raynor has completed 60.6% of his passes for 1,518 yards, seven touchdowns, and six interceptions, while Ja’Quez Cross has rushed for 334 yards and one score. 

Why Arkansas State will cover

• Arkansas State has won seven of its last eight home games.
• Troy has lost seven of its last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Arkansas State has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 October games as a home favorite.
• Troy has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Troy’s last eight games in October has gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of Arkansas State’s last six October games as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Arkansas State ranks 9th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (81.8).
• Arkansas State ranks 122nd among FBS teams for yards allowed per game this season (447.1).
• Troy ranks T124th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (2.4).
• Troy ranks T124th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (8.7).

Troy vs Arkansas State Prediction 

Troy comes into this matchup looking for their first conference win of the season, but they have lost their last two games by a combined 37 points. Arkansas State has won two of their last three games and they have a winning record after playing a very difficult schedule early on. The Red Wolves’ defense can be an issue at times, but I have very little faith in this Troy offense. The Trojans have scored 17 points or fewer in three straight games and their quarterback situation is not good. Take Arkansas State at home.