Toledo vs Bowling Green Prediction 10/11/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

The Toledo Rockets and the Bowling Green Falcons meet in week 7 college football action from Doyt L. Perry Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Toledo Rockets vs. Bowling Green Falcons prediction.

Toledo Rockets Recap

The Toledo Rockets come into this game looking to add on to their 45-3 win over Akron last time out to sit at 3-2 this season. After this game, Toledo will head home for a game against Kent State.

Rockets Win 3 Of Last 4

Tucker Gleason has thrown for 925 yards, 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 62.7% passing while Chip Trayanum has a team-high 476 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns this season. Kenji Christian has 198 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns while Junior Vandeross III has a team-high 31 catches for 380 yards and 6 touchdowns as well this season. Four more Rockets have 100+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, K’Von Sherman has a team-high 34 total tackles along with 19 solo tackles while Michael Davis has a team-high 2.5 sacks. As a unit, Toledo has combined for 11 sacks and 3 interceptions so far this season.

Bowling Green Falcons Recap

The Bowling Green Falcons come into this game looking to rebound from a 35-20 loss at the hands of Ohio last time out to sit at 2-3 this season. After this game, Bowling Green will take on Central Michigan at home.

Falcons Drop Back-To-Back Games

Drew Pyne has thrown for 830 yards, 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 64.4% passing while Kaderris Roberts has 172 rushing yards to lead Bowling Green on the ground. Chris McMillian has a team-high 226 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns while Cameron Pettaway and Kaderris Roberts have combined for 377 rushing yards behind McMillian. RJ Garcia II has 168 receiving yards and 17 grabs while Finn Hogan also has 165 receiving yards and Jyrin Johnson has 164 receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Gideon Lampton has a team-high 44 total tackles along with 1.5 sacks while Myles Bradley has a team-high 3 sacks. Eriq George has a pair of sacks and David Afogho has 1.5 sacks as well. As a unit, Bowling Green’s defense has combined for 12 sacks and 3 interceptions so far this season.

Toledo Rockets @ Bowling Green Falcons Betting Trends: Week 7

Why the Bowling Green Falcons will win

• Toledo has lost four of its last five games as a road favorite.
• Bowling Green has won four of its last five October games as an underdog.
• Toledo has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games as a road favorite.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of Toledo’s last four games.
• Bowling Green has won the first quarter in five of its last six home games against conference opponents.
• Bowling Green has won the first half in 13 of its last 15 games against conference opponents.

Why the Toledo Rockets will win

• The road team has won each of the last four games between Toledo and Bowling Green.
• Bowling Green has lost each of its last three games against teams from Ohio.
• Toledo has covered the spread in five of its last six games.
• Bowling Green has failed to cover the spread in six of its last eight home games in October.
• Toledo has won the first half in four of its last five games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Toledo’s last five games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the last four games between Toledo and Bowling Green have gone OVER the total points line.

Bowling Green Falcons Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 7, Jackson Kleather ranks T2nd amongst FBS players for made field goals (12) this season.

Toledo Rockets Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 7, Chip Trayanum leads the Mid-American Conference for touchdowns (7) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Bowling Green has lost the third quarter in each of its last six games – longest active streak in the FBS.
• Bowling Green ranks 129th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (-4.8).
• Toledo has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 15+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
• Toledo has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 20+ points of any FBS team this season (3).

Toledo Rockets vs. Bowling Green Falcons Prediction

I’m on Toledo here. Bowling Green as a home underdog is tempting and the Falcons have found a way to be very competitive so far this season. The problem is Toledo is still one of the front-runners in the MAC this season and the Rockets have started to show signs of why in some of their recent outings. I just think this is a 28-14 kind of game where Toledo doesn’t run away necessarily, but does enough for the win and cover here. Give me Toledo.