Texas vs Mississippi State Prediction 10/25/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a Texas vs Mississippi State prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 25th at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 9 matchup. 

Texas Longhorns Betting Preview

The Texas Longhorns are 5-2 (2-1) this year after they defeated Kentucky in overtime by a score of 16-13 last week. Texas led 10-3 at halftime and 13-10 with under a minute left in the fourth, but they allowed Kentucky to force overtime, before escaping with the win. The Longhorns were out gained by a total of 395-179, went 5-16 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Arch Manning went 12-27 for 132 yards, while Quintrevion Wisner rushed 12 times for 37 yards and one score. DeAndre Moore Jr. led the receivers with three catches for 37 yards in the win. The Texas defense recorded five sacks and 11 tackles for loss in the game. 

Prior to that game, Texas defeated Oklahoma by a score of 23-6, but did lose to Florida by a score of 29-21 before that. The Longhorns have won five of their last six games and they are currently tied for fifth in the SEC standings. Texas has scored 26.7 points per game with 218.7 passing yards and 149.4 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 11.3 points against per game this season. Arch Manning has thrown for 1,449 yards, 12 touchdowns, and five interceptions, while Ryan Wingo has caught 24 passes for 320 yards and four scores this year. 

Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 4-3 (0-3) this season after they lost to Florida by a score of 23-21 in their last game. Mississippi State trailed 23-14 in the fourth quarter, but they scored a touchdown and were getting close to field goal position for the win, but threw an interception for the loss. The Bulldogs out gained Florida by a total of 468-452, went 8-15 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at two in the game. Blake Shapen went 24-36 for 324 yards and one interception, while Davon Booth rushed 22 times for 105 yards and two scores. Brenen Thompson led the receivers with seven receptions for 155 yards in the loss. The Miss State defense recorded two sacks and three tackles for loss in the game. 

Prior to that game, Mississippi State lost to Texas A&M by a score of 31-9 and Tennessee by a score of 41-34 in overtime. The Bulldogs have lost three games in a row and they are currently near the bottom of the SEC standings. Mississippi State has scored 31.9 points per game with 227.3 passing yards and 178.6 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 20.3 points against per game this season. Blake Shapen has thrown for 1,525 yards, nine touchdowns, and five interceptions, while Brenen Thompson has 29 receptions for 533 yards and four scores this season. 

Why the Texas Longhorns will win

Mississippi State has lost each of its last 10 home games against conference opponents.
Texas has won 24 of its last 25 games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 11 games against conference opponents at Davis Wade Stadium.

Total Points Facts

Each of Mississippi State’s last six October games at Davis Wade Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
Eight of Texas’ last nine October games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

Mississippi State ranks 127th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (27:11).
Mississippi State ranks T11th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (10.3).
Texas ranks 5th among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game this season (83.3).
Texas ranks 6th among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (5.3).

Texas vs Mississippi State Prediction 

Mississippi State comes into this matchup on a three game losing streak, but they played well against Tennessee and Florida, before losing late. Texas is ranked #22 and they have won five of their last six games, but they nearly lost to a bad Kentucky team last week. The Longhorns have been brutal offensively this year, but should have a chance to bounce back against a bad Mississippi State defense. On the other side, the Texas defense has been very good and should keep the Bulldogs in check. Take Texas to cover on the road. 

David Racey is 80-61 (57%) in College Football this season and is one of the top College Football Handicappers on the site. Click here for his premium plays for the week!