Pick details
| MATCHUP | Texas State Bobcats | Texas Longhorns |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Spread | +29.5 -110 | -29.5 -110 |
| Moneyline | +2500 | -9000 |
| Total | Over 59.5 (-108) | Under 59.5 (-112) |
| Where | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX | |
| When | Saturday, September 5, 2026 | |
| Time | 03:30 PM EDT | |
| TV | ESPN | |
Texas Preview
Texas finished last season with a 10-3 overall record, a 6-2 conference record, and placed 5th in the SEC. They had a 6-0 home record and a 2-3 road record. Offensively, the Longhorns scored 30.5 points per game (ranking 41st in the nation). Defensively, Texas allowed 20.3 points per game (ranking 28th in the nation). They averaged 388.5 total yards per game (137.8 rushing, 250.7 passing) and gave up 338.8 total yards per game (103.9 rushing, 234.9 passing).
Arch Manning led the Longhorns with 248/404 completed passes and 3,163 total passing yards, throwing 26 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Arch Manning led the team in rushing yards with 399, adding a team-high 10 rushing touchdowns, while Ryan Wingo had a team-high 54 caught passes for 834 receiving yards and 7 receiving touchdowns. Defensively, Jelani McDonald led the team with 80 total tackles (49 solo), while Colin Simmons led Texas in sacks with 12.0.
Texas State Preview
Texas State finished last season with a 7-6 overall record, a 3-5 conference record, and placed 5th in the Sun Belt Conference (West Division). They had a 4-2 home record and a 2-4 road record. Offensively, the Bobcats scored 36.5 points per game (ranking 12th in the nation). Defensively, Texas State allowed 29 points per game (ranking 95th in the nation). They averaged 472.8 total yards per game (222.1 rushing, 250.8 passing) and gave up 382.9 total yards per game (164.8 rushing, 218.1 passing).
Brad Jackson led the Bobcats with 251/352 completed passes and 3,260 total passing yards, throwing 21 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Lincoln Pare led the team in rushing yards with 1,128, adding a team-high 12 rushing touchdowns, while Beau Sparks had a team-high 84 caught passes for 1,200 receiving yards and 10 receiving touchdowns. Defensively, Treylin Payne led the team with 107 total tackles (49 solo), while Kalil Alexander led Texas State in sacks with 5.0.
Texas State Bobcats @ Texas Longhorns Betting Trends: Week 1
Why the Texas Longhorns will win
- Texas has won each of its last 20 home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Texas State has lost four of its last five road games.
- Texas State has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games against AP-ranked teams.
- Texas has covered the spread in five of its last six season openers as a favorite.
- Texas has won the first quarter in each of its last 12 home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Texas has won the first half each of its last 14 home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Why the Texas State Bobcats will win
- Texas State has won each of its last three road openers as an underdog.
- Texas has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games as a top-10 AP-ranked team.
- Texas State has covered the spread in five of its last six games as an underdog against teams from Texas.
- Texas State has won the first quarter in three of its last four games as a road underdog.
- Texas State has won the first half in each of its last seven games against teams from Texas.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Texas’ last five home openers have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Four of Texas State’s last five games as a road underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
Texas Longhorns Player Prop Facts
- Colin Simmons has recorded at least one sack in five consecutive games – longest streak in the FBS.
Texas State Bobcats Player Prop Facts
- Beau Sparks has recorded 50+ receiving yards in 14 consecutive games – longest streak in the FBS.
Matchup/League Facts
- Texas have had overturned the largest 3rd quarter deficit to win a game last season – 17 points vs Mississippi State.
- Texas ranked T2nd among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game last season (2.0).
- Texas State have had suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team last season (3).
- Texas State ranked 4th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game last season (10.9).
Texas State vs Texas Prediction
In this Texas State vs Texas Prediction, Texas is coming as -30.5 home favorites. Texas was undefeated at home last season but they were just 5-8 against the spread throughout the season and will face a Texas State team that had an elite offense last season, scoring 6 points per game more than Texas and ranked 12th in the whole country. Texas is being projected as the number 6 team in the country but the line for this game is way too high, especially when playing a same-city school. Take Texas State and grab the +30.5 points in this one.
Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Texas State +30.5
