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Tennessee vs Mississippi State Prediction 9/27/2025 Today’s College Football Picks
Pick details
Tennessee (3-1) vs Mississippi State (4-0)
September 27, 2025 at 04:15 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Mississippi State +10 — Over/Under: +62.5
The Tennessee Volunteers and the Mississippi State Bulldogs meet Saturday in college football action from Davis Wade Stadium. Here’s a Tennessee vs Mississippi State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Tennessee vs Mississippi State pick. We will examine:
The Tennessee Volunteers recent form and player performance
The Mississippi State Bulldogs recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Tennessee Volunteers
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Mississippi State Bulldogs
Recent betting trends in games played between Tennessee and Mississippi State
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Tennessee vs Mississippi State game
Tennessee has four games in the books this year so far, with just one blemish on the card. The Vols were able to dispatch Syracuse in the opener 45-26 on August 30, then blew out East Tennessee State 72-17 in game two. Tennessee’s first loss came at the hands of a tough Georgia team on September 13. After a 21-7 first-quarter lead the Volunteers eventually fell 44-41 in overtime. Tennessee put up 496 yards of offense with 371 passing yards and 7.1 yards per play. On defense the Volunteers surrendered 502 yards with 304 passing yards.
In last weekend’s game versus UAB, Tennessee was up 42-7 by the end of the first half. When the dust settled the Vols ended up winning 56-24. QB Joey Aguilar finished with 218 yards, three scores and a pick on 15-of-22 passing, and Peyton Lewis carried 11 times for 81 yards and a TD of his own. Chris Brazzell led the team in receiving with five grabs for 62 yards and a touchdown.
Over on the Bulldogs’ side, they had a season opener matchup versus Southern Miss. Mississippi State ended up winning that one 34-17, then eked by Arizona State 24-20 in game two. Matched up against Alcorn State on September 13, the Bulldogs posted 28 points in the first quarter on the way to a dominant blowout victory 63-0. Mississippi State notched 514 total yards in that one with 282 rush yards and 9.5 yards per play. On defense the Bulldogs kept the Braves in check with 161 total yards, 93 of those coming through the air.
In their latest outing versus Northern Illinois, the Bulldogs held a modest 14-10 lead at the break but shut out the Huskies from there in a 38-10 blowout win. QB Blake Shapen posted a 12-of-20 line for 160 yards and a touchdown. Tops in rushing was Fluff Bothwell with 17 totes for 101 yards, and Anthony Evans had four catches for 80 yards.
Heading into Week 5, Jayven Williams leads the Southeastern Conference for forced fumbles (2) this season.
Heading into Week 5, Chris Brazzell II ranks 1st amongst FBS players for receiving touchdowns (6) this season.
Mississippi State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of five points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
Mississippi State has won the first quarter in each of its last five games – equal-longest active streak in the FBS.
Tennessee ranks 1st among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+19.0).
Tennessee ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).
I’ll stick with Tennessee. The Volunteers didn’t have any issues at all with a mediocre UAB team last weekend. Tennessee accumulated 510 total yards (235 rushing) in the win with 7.0 yards per play, 28 first downs and 7-of-13 on third-down tries. The only real blemishes for the offense were the two turnovers. On the other side the Vols did give up 371 passing yards but otherwise held the Blazers to 23 rush yards, 18 first downs and 5-of-15 on third downs alongside a pair of takeaways. UAB’s 13 penalties didn’t hurt matters, either. Tennessee is lighting up the scoreboards this year; they’ve hit 41 or more points in all four games thus far.
As for Mississippi State, they took a while to get going versus NIU last weekend but it all worked out. That said, the Bulldogs committed 11 penalties for 103 yards in the game and went just 5-of-13 on third-down conversions. This weekend’s matchup against Tennessee will mark a significant uptick in difficulty, and I don’t think Mississippi will be able to keep pace cover-wise.
The Tennessee Volunteers recent form and player performance
The Mississippi State Bulldogs recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Tennessee Volunteers
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Mississippi State Bulldogs
Recent betting trends in games played between Tennessee and Mississippi State
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Tennessee vs Mississippi State game
Tennessee Volunteers Betting Preview
Tennessee has four games in the books this year so far, with just one blemish on the card. The Vols were able to dispatch Syracuse in the opener 45-26 on August 30, then blew out East Tennessee State 72-17 in game two. Tennessee’s first loss came at the hands of a tough Georgia team on September 13. After a 21-7 first-quarter lead the Volunteers eventually fell 44-41 in overtime. Tennessee put up 496 yards of offense with 371 passing yards and 7.1 yards per play. On defense the Volunteers surrendered 502 yards with 304 passing yards.
In last weekend’s game versus UAB, Tennessee was up 42-7 by the end of the first half. When the dust settled the Vols ended up winning 56-24. QB Joey Aguilar finished with 218 yards, three scores and a pick on 15-of-22 passing, and Peyton Lewis carried 11 times for 81 yards and a TD of his own. Chris Brazzell led the team in receiving with five grabs for 62 yards and a touchdown.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview
Over on the Bulldogs’ side, they had a season opener matchup versus Southern Miss. Mississippi State ended up winning that one 34-17, then eked by Arizona State 24-20 in game two. Matched up against Alcorn State on September 13, the Bulldogs posted 28 points in the first quarter on the way to a dominant blowout victory 63-0. Mississippi State notched 514 total yards in that one with 282 rush yards and 9.5 yards per play. On defense the Bulldogs kept the Braves in check with 161 total yards, 93 of those coming through the air.
In their latest outing versus Northern Illinois, the Bulldogs held a modest 14-10 lead at the break but shut out the Huskies from there in a 38-10 blowout win. QB Blake Shapen posted a 12-of-20 line for 160 yards and a touchdown. Tops in rushing was Fluff Bothwell with 17 totes for 101 yards, and Anthony Evans had four catches for 80 yards.
Tennessee Volunteers @ Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Trends: Week 5
Mississippi State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts
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Heading into Week 5, Jayven Williams leads the Southeastern Conference for forced fumbles (2) this season.
Tennessee Volunteers Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 5, Chris Brazzell II ranks 1st amongst FBS players for receiving touchdowns (6) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
Mississippi State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of five points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
Mississippi State has won the first quarter in each of its last five games – equal-longest active streak in the FBS.
Tennessee ranks 1st among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+19.0).
Tennessee ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).
Tennessee vs Mississippi State Prediction
I’ll stick with Tennessee. The Volunteers didn’t have any issues at all with a mediocre UAB team last weekend. Tennessee accumulated 510 total yards (235 rushing) in the win with 7.0 yards per play, 28 first downs and 7-of-13 on third-down tries. The only real blemishes for the offense were the two turnovers. On the other side the Vols did give up 371 passing yards but otherwise held the Blazers to 23 rush yards, 18 first downs and 5-of-15 on third downs alongside a pair of takeaways. UAB’s 13 penalties didn’t hurt matters, either. Tennessee is lighting up the scoreboards this year; they’ve hit 41 or more points in all four games thus far.
As for Mississippi State, they took a while to get going versus NIU last weekend but it all worked out. That said, the Bulldogs committed 11 penalties for 103 yards in the game and went just 5-of-13 on third-down conversions. This weekend’s matchup against Tennessee will mark a significant uptick in difficulty, and I don’t think Mississippi will be able to keep pace cover-wise.
