South Alabama vs North Texas Prediction 9/27/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a South Alabama vs North Texas prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 27th at DATCU Stadium in Denton, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 5 matchup. 

South Alabama Jaguars Betting Preview

The South Alabama Jaguars are 1-3 (0-1) this season after they lost to Coastal Carolina by a score of 38-20 last week. South Alabama led 14-7 at halftime, but allowed 31 points in the second half for the bad loss at home. The Jaguars out gained Coastal by a total of 420-294, went 8-18 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 3-0 in the game. Bishop Davenport went 22-36 for 197 yards and two interceptions, while Keenan Phillips rushed 13 times for 104 yards. Devin Voisin led the USA receivers with eight catches for 94 yards in the game. The South Alabama defense recorded one sack and five tackles for loss in the defeat. 

South Alabama started the season with a win over Morgan State, but they lost to Tulane and Auburn after that. The Jaguars are averaging 26.0 points per game with 193.0 passing yards and 186.5 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 30.8 points against per game this season. Bishop Davenport has completed 69% of his passes for 764 yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Devin Voisin has caught 27 passes for 360 yards and four scores. Kentrel Bullock has led the rushing attack with 76 carries for 364 yards and four touchdowns this season. 

North Texas Mean Green Betting Preview

The North Texas Mean Green are 4-0 (1-0) this year after they defeated Army in overtime by a score of 45-38 last week. North Texas led 21-7 after the first quarter and 28-14 at the half, but they allowed 17 points in the fourth, before winning in overtime. The Mean Green were out gained by a total of 488-478, went 7-12 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a margin of 3-1 in the game. Drew Mestemaker went 26-36 for 249 yards and one touchdown, while Makenzie McGill II rushed for 101 yards and one score. Miles Coleman was the leading receiver with eight catches for 74 yards in the game. The UNT defense recorded one sack and four tackles for loss in the win. 

North Texas also has wins over Lamar, Western Michigan, and Washington State so far this year. The Mean Green are averaging 48.5 points per game with 262.3 passing yards and 176.8 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 19.5 points against per game this season. Drew Mestemaker has completed 70.8% of his passes for 1,013 yards and 10 touchdowns, while Miles Coleman has caught 19 passes for 182 yards. Makenzie McGill II has rushed 50 times for 271 yards and four scores this year. 

Why North Texas will beat South Alabama 

North Texas has won each of its last eight September games as a home favorite.
South Alabama has lost four of its last five games against teams from Texas.
North Texas has covered the spread in four of its last five games.
South Alabama has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games against teams from Texas.

Why South Alabama will beat North Texas 

The underdog has covered the spread in seven of South Alabama’s last nine games.

Total Points Facts

Thirteen of North Texas’ last 14 September games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Seven of South Alabama’s last eight games as a road underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

North Texas ranks T8th among FBS teams for H1 points per game this season (28.5).
North Texas ranks 9th among FBS teams for points per game this season (47.0).
South Alabama ranks 17th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (144.5).
South Alabama ranks T116th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (-2.8).

South Alabama vs North Texas Prediction 

North Texas comes into this matchup looking for their fifth straight win to start the season and their offense has been on fire through four games. The Mean Green have allowed 30+ points in two of their last three, but they have scored 45, 59, 33, and 51 this season. South Alabama played pretty well against Tulane and Auburn earlier this year, but they were terrible in the second half against Coastal last week. The Jaguars have allowed 31+ in three straight games and I don’t see them slowing down this North Texas attack. Take the over in this game.

David Racey is 18-9 (67%) in his last 27 College Football plays this season and is #1 on the leaderboard. Click here for his premium plays for this week!