SMU vs California Prediction 11/29/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

The SMU Mustangs and Cal Golden Bears meet Saturday in college football action at California Memorial Stadium. Here’s a SMU vs California Prediction. This article will include a SMU vs California Pick.

SMU Mustangs Betting Preview

The SMU Mustangs beat Boston College and Louisville. SMU has won 3 straight games. Kevin Jennings is completing 66.1 percent of his passes for 3,113 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. Romello Brinson and Jordan Hudson have combined for 1,329 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns, while Yamir Knight has 43 receptions.

The SMU Mustangs ground game is averaging 127.2 yards per contest, and T.J. Harden leads the way with 703 yards and 6 touchdowns. Defensively, SMU is allowing 19.1 points and 385 yards per game. Ahmaad Moses leads the SMU Mustangs with 81 tackles, Isaiah Smith has 9 sacks and Isaiah Nwokobia has 2 interceptions.

Cal Golden Bears Betting Preview

The Cal Golden Bears beat Louisville and lost to Stanford. Cal has lost 3 of its last 4 games. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is completing 62.2 percent of his passes for 2,787 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. Trond Grizzell and Jacob De Jesus have combined for 1,464 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, while Mason Mini has 35 receptions.

The Cal Golden Bears ground game is averaging 79.6 yards per contest, and Kendrick Raphael leads the way with 742 yards and 11 touchdowns. Defensively, Cal is allowing 28.3 points and 383.1 yards per game. Cade Uluave leads the Cal Golden Bears with 82 tackles, TJ Bush Jr. has 5.5 sacks and Hezekiah Masses has 5 interceptions.

Why the California Golden Bears will win

• SMU has failed to cover the spread in 14 of its last 17 road games in November.

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• SMU has won each of its last 12 November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• California has lost each of its last six home games against AP-ranked teams.
• California has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six games against conference opponents at California Memorial Stadium.
• SMU has covered the spread in each of its last five games in November.
• California has lost the first half in four of its last five games against conference opponents at California Memorial Stadium.

Total Points Facts

• Five of SMU’s last six games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Three of California’s last four games as an underdog have gone OVER the total points line.

California Golden Bears Player Prop Facts

• Jacob De Jesus has recorded 10+ receptions in two consecutive games – equal-longest streak in the FBS, heading into Week 14.

SMU Mustangs Player Prop Facts

• Kevin Jennings has recorded 275+ passing yards in three consecutive games – equal-longest streak in the FBS, heading into Week 14.

Matchup/League Facts

• California ranks T107th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (4.4).
• California ranks 106th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (337.8).
• SMU ranks 5th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (17).
• SMU ranks 130th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (27:14).

SMU vs California Prediction

SMU should be the obvious favorite, but it also failed to cover 8 of its last 14 games as a double-digit favorite. SMU also has issues running the ball and stopping the pass, which aren’t ideal on the road. It’s senior night for Cal, which has 20 seniors, and the Golden Bears have covered 9 of their last 14 games as a double-digit underdog. Cal just beat Louisville as a double-digit dog. Cal also has an explosive passing attack, which will give that SMU defense fits. Give me the points.

Randy Chambers's Pick: California +13.5