Pick details
| MATCHUP | Sam Houston State Bearkats | Troy Trojans |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 2-10 | 0-0 |
| Spread | +16.5 -110 | -16.5 -110 |
| Moneyline | +575 | -850 |
| Total | Over 54.5 (-112) | Under 54.5 (-108) |
| Where | Troy Stadium | |
| When | Saturday, September 5, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | ESPN+ | |
Sam Houston Bearkats Betting Preview
The Sam Houston Bearkats went 2-10 (1-7) last season and they finished tied for last in the CUSA standings. Sam Houston started the season with a 41-24 loss to Western Kentucky, which was followed up with a 38-21 loss to UNLV. The Bearkats lost their first eight games, but did get wins against Oregon State and Delaware by a combined seven points. Sam Houston finished the campaign with losses to Middle Tennessee and FIU. The Bearkats gave up a ton of points last season, as they allowed 29+ points in 10 of their 12 games. Sam Houston scored 17.8 points per game in 2025, while they allowed 37.8 points against per game on defense.This season, Sam Houston will run it back with Landyn Locke and DJ Bailey at quarterback, who were not very good last year. The Bearkats do have some talent at receiver and running back, but the quarterback situation will dictate how the season goes. On defense, Sam Houston was one of the worst in the country last year, but they should be better this year, at least they look better on paper.
Troy Trojans Betting Preview
The Troy Trojans went 8-6 (6-2) last year and they finished first in the Sun Belt West standings. Troy started the season with a 38-20 win over Nicholls State, but they lost to Clemson 27-16 after that. The Trojans were 6-2 through eight games, but they went 2-2 to finish the regular season. Troy lost to James Madison by a score of 31-14 in the Sun Belt Championship game and they lost the Salute to Veterans Bowl by a score of 17-13 to Jacksonville State. The Trojans scored 23.5 points per game in 2025, while they allowed 23.9 points against per game on defense.This year, Troy will have Crowder and Kilcrease at quarterback, who both have experience, but the rest of the offense is up in the air. The offensive line only returns two starters and the receivers/running backs are thin. On defense, Troy was solid in 2025, but they need to replace almost all of their production from that unit. We will see how the transfer portal pieces fit into the scheme and how long it takes to gel.
Why the Troy Trojans will win
- Troy has won 12 of its last 13 games against teams from Texas.
- Sam Houston State has lost six of its last seven road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Sam Houston State has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Troy has covered the spread in three of its last four home games.
- Sam Houston State has lost the first half in seven of its last eight games as a road underdog.
Why the Sam Houston State Bearkats will win
- Troy has lost three of its last four games in September.
- Troy has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four home openers.
Total Points Facts
- Nine of Troy’s last 10 games in September have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of Sam Houston State’s last five September games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Troy Trojans Player Prop Facts
- Donnie Smith ranked 1st in the Sun Belt Conference for sacks (11.0) last season.
Sam Houston State Bearkats Player Prop Facts
- Landan Brown ranked 13th amongst qualified players for catch rate (86.0%) last season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Troy ranked 127th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game last season (3.1).
- Troy ranked 123rd among FBS teams for yards per game last season (307.2).
- Sam Houston State ranked 136th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game last season (11.9).
- Sam Houston State ranked 136th among FBS teams for yards allowed per game last season (483.6).
