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North Carolina vs UCF Prediction 9/20/2025 Today’s College Football Picks
Pick details
North Carolina (2-1) vs UCF (2-0)
September 20, 2025 at 03:30 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: UCF -6 — Over/Under: +47.5
The North Carolina Tar Heels and UCF Knights meet Saturday in college football action at FBC Mortgage Stadium. Here’s a North Carolina vs UCF Prediction. This article will include a North Carolina vs UCF Pick.
The North Carolina Tar Heels beat Charlotte and Richmond, and they play Clemson next. North Carolina has split its last 10 games. Gio Lopez is completing 58.5 percent of his passes for 343 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jordan Shipp and Chris Culliver have combined for 238 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, while Javarius Green has 6 receptions.
The North Carolina Tar Heels ground game is averaging 130.3 yards per contest, and Demon June leads the way with 200 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, North Carolina is allowing 19 points and 337.3 yards per game. Andrew Simpson leads the North Carolina Tar Heels with 22 tackles, Melkart Abou-Jaoude has 2 sacks and Greg Smith has 1 interception.
The UCF Knights beat Jacksonville State and North Carolina A&T, and they play Kansas State next. UCF has lost 8 of its last 11 games. Tayven Jackson is completing 64.4 percent of his passes for 471 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Duane Thomas Jr. and Myles Montgomery have combined for 220 receiving yards on 11 catches, while DJ Black has 6 receptions.
The UCF Knights ground game is averaging 232 yards per contest, and Jaden Nixon leads the way with 150 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, UCF is allowing 8.5 points and 261 yards per game. Cole Kozlowski leads the UCF Knights with 11 tackles, Nyjalik Kelly has 1.5 sacks and Jayden McDonald has 1 interception.
North Carolina has a ways to go before it can be trusted against respectable teams, especially on the offensive side of the ball, where it’s 128th in total offense and 87th in scoring offense. We haven’t forgotten that TCU game, and wins over Charlotte and Richmond don’t move the needle. UCF hasn’t played anybody through two games, but there’s talent here, and this is a defense that’s 26th in total defense, third in passing defense and ninth in scoring defense. UCF has also had an extra week to prepare for this game. North Carolina is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games as an underdog. I’ll lay the points with UCF at home.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview
The North Carolina Tar Heels beat Charlotte and Richmond, and they play Clemson next. North Carolina has split its last 10 games. Gio Lopez is completing 58.5 percent of his passes for 343 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jordan Shipp and Chris Culliver have combined for 238 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, while Javarius Green has 6 receptions.
The North Carolina Tar Heels ground game is averaging 130.3 yards per contest, and Demon June leads the way with 200 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, North Carolina is allowing 19 points and 337.3 yards per game. Andrew Simpson leads the North Carolina Tar Heels with 22 tackles, Melkart Abou-Jaoude has 2 sacks and Greg Smith has 1 interception.
UCF Knights Betting Preview
The UCF Knights beat Jacksonville State and North Carolina A&T, and they play Kansas State next. UCF has lost 8 of its last 11 games. Tayven Jackson is completing 64.4 percent of his passes for 471 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Duane Thomas Jr. and Myles Montgomery have combined for 220 receiving yards on 11 catches, while DJ Black has 6 receptions.
The UCF Knights ground game is averaging 232 yards per contest, and Jaden Nixon leads the way with 150 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, UCF is allowing 8.5 points and 261 yards per game. Cole Kozlowski leads the UCF Knights with 11 tackles, Nyjalik Kelly has 1.5 sacks and Jayden McDonald has 1 interception.
North Carolina Tar Heels @ UCF Knights Betting Trends: Week 4
Why the UCF Knights will win
- UCF has won each of its last seven games against non-conference opponents at Acrisure Bounce House.
- North Carolina has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- The favorite has covered the spread in each of North Carolina’s last three games.
Why the North Carolina Tar Heels will win
- North Carolina has won five of its last seven games as an underdog against teams from Florida.
- UCF has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven games against opponents from the Atlantic Coast Conference.
- North Carolina has covered the spread in each of its last three games against teams from Florida.
Total Points Facts
- Each of UCF’s last seven September games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
- Four of North Carolina’s last five September games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
UCF Knights Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 4, Myles Montgomery ranks 7th amongst qualified players for Yards Per Reception (25.8) this season.
North Carolina Tar Heels Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 4, Mikai Gbayor leads the Atlantic Coast Conference for forced fumbles (2) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- UCF ranks T1st among FBS teams for H1 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
- UCF ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).
- North Carolina ranks T12th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (4).
- North Carolina ranks T124th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (41).
North Carolina vs UCF Prediction
North Carolina has a ways to go before it can be trusted against respectable teams, especially on the offensive side of the ball, where it’s 128th in total offense and 87th in scoring offense. We haven’t forgotten that TCU game, and wins over Charlotte and Richmond don’t move the needle. UCF hasn’t played anybody through two games, but there’s talent here, and this is a defense that’s 26th in total defense, third in passing defense and ninth in scoring defense. UCF has also had an extra week to prepare for this game. North Carolina is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games as an underdog. I’ll lay the points with UCF at home.
