North Carolina vs California Prediction 10/17/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

The North Carolina Tar Heels and the Cal Golden Bears meet in week 8 college football action from California Memorial Stadium on Friday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Cal Golden Bears prediction.

North Carolina Tar Heels Recap

The North Carolina Tar Heels come into this game looking to bounce back from their 38-10 loss at the hands of Clemson last time out prior to last week’s bye week to sit at 2-3 this season. After this game, North Carolina will head home for a game against Virginia.

Tar Heels Drop Back-To-Back Games

Gio Lopez has thrown for 430 yards, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 62.7% passing while Max Johnson has thrown for 383 yards and 2 TDs on 63.9% passing while Demon June leads the Tar Heels with 266 rushing yards and a touchdown. Jordan Shipp has a team-high 18 receptions for 234 yards and 2 touchdowns while two more Tar Heels have 100+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Andrew Simpson and Khmori House each have a team-high 29 total tackles with Simpson logging a team-high 17 solo tackles and a pair of sacks while Melkart Abou Jaoude has a pair of sacks as well on the year. As a unit, North Carolina’s defense has combined for 6 sacks and 4 interceptions so far this season. 

Cal Golden Bears Recap

The Cal Golden Bears come into this game looking to bounce back from a 45-21 loss to Duke prior to last week’s bye week to sit at 4-2 on the year as a result. After this game, Cal will head on the road for a game against Virginia Tech.

Cal Looking For Consistency

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has thrown for 1,487 yards, 9 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on 62.2% passing while Kendrick Raphael has a team-high 414 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns so far this season. Trond Grizzell has a team-high 400 receiving yards and a touchdown with 24 receptions while Jacob De Jesus has a team-high 34 catches for 301 yards and 2 touchdowns and Mason Mini has 26 grabs for 279 yards and 3 touchdowns so far this season. Another pair of Golden Bears have 100+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Cade Uluave has a team-high 52 total tackles along with a sack while Luke Ferrelli has 45 total tackles and a sack. Hezekiah Masses has a team-high 4 interceptions while Cal’s defense as a whole has combined for 9 sacks and 5 interceptions so far this season.

North Carolina Tar Heels @ California Golden Bears Betting Trends: Week 8

Why the California Golden Bears will win

• North Carolina has lost five of its last six games in October.
• The favorite has won 21 of California’s last 24 games at California Memorial Stadium.
• North Carolina has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games as an underdog.
• The favorite has covered the spread in each of North Carolina’s last five games.
• North Carolina has lost the first half in each of its last three games against conference opponents.

Why the North Carolina Tar Heels will win

• California has lost 11 of its last 12 games in October.
• The underdog has won three of California’s last four games.
• California has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four home games against conference opponents.
• North Carolina has covered the spread in five of its last six October games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• California has lost the first half in each of its last five games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Six of California’s last seven home games in October have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of North Carolina’s last three games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

California Golden Bears Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 8, Hezekiah Masses leads the Atlantic Coast Conference for interceptions (4) this season.

North Carolina Tar Heels Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 8, Max Johnson ranks 4th amongst qualified players for sack percentage (1.4%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• California ranks 126th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (96.7).
• California ranks T118th among FBS teams for Q2 points per game this season (4.7).
• North Carolina ranks 136th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (74).
• North Carolina ranks 133rd among FBS teams for yards per game this season (264.8).

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Cal Golden Bears Prediction

I’m leaning towards Cal here. We’ve just seen a lot of teams in the new look ACC and Big Ten struggle with these cross country travel spots, especially on a short week, and it just feels like everything is kind of falling apart for UNC right now. Cal is a team I much prefer backing as underdogs, but I think they’re justified favorites here. Give me the Golden Bears.