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New Mexico vs Boise State Prediction 10/11/2025 Today’s College Football Picks
Pick details
New Mexico (3-2) vs Boise State (3-2)
October 11, 2025 at 09:45 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Boise State -16.5 — Over/Under: +60
In this article we will formulate a New Mexico vs Boise State prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 11th at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 7 matchup.
Prior to that loss, New Mexico defeated New Mexico State, UCLA, and Idaho State, but did lose to Michigan in their first game. The Lobos are averaging 30.0 points per game with 242.4 passing yards and 154.4 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 24.2 points against per game this season. Jack Layne has completed 69.5% of his passes for 1,162 yards, seven touchdowns, and six interceptions, while Keagan Johnson has caught 26 passes for 326 yards and one touchdown. Damon Bankston has carried the ball 43 times for 289 yards and three scores this year.
Prior to that loss, Boise State defeated Appalachian State, Air Force, and Eastern Washington, but did lose to South Florida to open the season. The Broncos are averaging 32.2 points per game with 282.2 passing yards and 196.8 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 25.4 points against per game this season. Maddux Madsen has completed 59.8% of his passes for 1,344 yards, nine touchdowns, and five interceptions, while Latrell Caples has 21 receptions for 292 yards and two scores. Dylan Riley has led the Boise State rushing attack with 393 yards and five touchdowns this season.
New Mexico has lost each of its last four games at Albertsons Stadium.
Boise State has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games against conference opponents at Albertsons Stadium.
New Mexico has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games against teams from Idaho.
New Mexico has lost the first half in 10 of its last 13 games against conference opponents.
The underdog has covered the spread in seven of New Mexico’s last nine games.
Five of Boise State’s last six games as a favorite against New Mexico have gone UNDER the total points line.
Boise State ranks 14th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (479.0).
New Mexico ranks T126th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (271.2).
New Mexico ranks T12th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (28.6).
David Racey is 58-44 (57%) in College Football this season and is one of the top College Football Handicappers on the site. Click here for his premium plays for the week!
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview
The New Mexico Lobos are 3-2 (0-1) this year after they lost to San Jose State by a score of 35-28 last week. New Mexico cut the deficit to 21-17 right before halftime, but trailed 35-17 heading into the fourth quarter and couldn’t complete the comeback. The Lobos were out gained by a total of 491-420, went 6-10 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 3-0 in the game. Jack Layne went 28-40 for 344 yards and three interceptions, while Damon Bankston rushed nine times for 51 yards and one score. Keagan Johnson led the receivers with 11 receptions for 145 yards in the game. The UNM defense recorded zero sacks and two tackles for loss in the defeat.Prior to that loss, New Mexico defeated New Mexico State, UCLA, and Idaho State, but did lose to Michigan in their first game. The Lobos are averaging 30.0 points per game with 242.4 passing yards and 154.4 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 24.2 points against per game this season. Jack Layne has completed 69.5% of his passes for 1,162 yards, seven touchdowns, and six interceptions, while Keagan Johnson has caught 26 passes for 326 yards and one touchdown. Damon Bankston has carried the ball 43 times for 289 yards and three scores this year.
Boise State Broncos Betting Preview
The Boise State Broncos are 3-2 (1-0) this season after they lost to Notre Dame by a score of 28-7 in their last game. Boise State led 7-6 in the second quarter, but failed to score over the last 49 minutes for the loss. The Broncos were out gained by a total of 392-315, went 6-15 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 4-0 in the game. Maddux Madsen went 22-37 for 215 yards and four interceptions, while Sire Gaines rushed for 39 yards in the loss. Chris Marshall led the receivers with four receptions for 58 yards in the game. The Boise defense recorded zero sacks and five tackles for loss in the defeat.Prior to that loss, Boise State defeated Appalachian State, Air Force, and Eastern Washington, but did lose to South Florida to open the season. The Broncos are averaging 32.2 points per game with 282.2 passing yards and 196.8 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 25.4 points against per game this season. Maddux Madsen has completed 59.8% of his passes for 1,344 yards, nine touchdowns, and five interceptions, while Latrell Caples has 21 receptions for 292 yards and two scores. Dylan Riley has led the Boise State rushing attack with 393 yards and five touchdowns this season.
Why the Boise State Broncos will win
Boise State has won each of its last 13 games against conference opponents.New Mexico has lost each of its last four games at Albertsons Stadium.
Boise State has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games against conference opponents at Albertsons Stadium.
New Mexico has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games against teams from Idaho.
New Mexico has lost the first half in 10 of its last 13 games against conference opponents.
Why the New Mexico Lobos will win
New Mexico has won three of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.
The underdog has covered the spread in seven of New Mexico’s last nine games.
Total Points Facts
Seven of New Mexico’s last eight October games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.Five of Boise State’s last six games as a favorite against New Mexico have gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
Boise State ranks T128th among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (70.0).Boise State ranks 14th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (479.0).
New Mexico ranks T126th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (271.2).
New Mexico ranks T12th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (28.6).
New Mexico vs Boise State Prediction
Boise State comes into this matchup after a tough loss against Notre Dame last week, but they are 2-0 at home so far this year. The Broncos have scored 47+ points in all three of their wins this season and will face a New Mexico defense that was just shredded by San Jose State. The Lobos have scored 28+ in four straight games, including 35 against UCLA in a win. I think we will see plenty of offense in this matchup, so I like the over here.David Racey is 58-44 (57%) in College Football this season and is one of the top College Football Handicappers on the site. Click here for his premium plays for the week!
