Missouri State vs Arkansas State Prediction 12/18/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

The Missouri State Bears and the Arkansas State Red Wolves meet Thursday in Xbox Bowl college football action from Ford Center at the Star. Here’s a Missouri State vs Arkansas State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Missouri State vs Arkansas State pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

Missouri State Bears Betting Preview

The Bears opened the year on a rocky run, going just 2-3 over their first five games. The losses in that time were versus USC, SMU and Western Kentucky. Missouri State would hit a win streak after that versus Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, Florida International, Liberty and UTEP. Since then it’s been a pair of losses to Kennesaw State and LA Tech however. That leaves Missouri State with a 7-5 overall record across 12 outings this season.

In the LA Tech matchup back on November 29, the Bears were down 14-10 by the end of the half. Missouri State ended up surrendering points in every quarter along the way to a 42-30 loss. QB Jacob Clark put up a 17-of-31 line for 294 yards, two scores and a pick. Shomari Lawrence added 13 carries for 84 yards and a score of his own while lead receiver Jeron Askren had a 75-yard touchdown catch in the losing effort for the Bears.

Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview

Over on the Arkansas State side, they beat SEMO in their opener then fell versus Arkansas, Iowa State, Kennesaw State and LA-Monroe in the next four. After wins over Texas State, South Alabama, Georgia Southern and Troy in succession, Arkansas State fell versus Southern Miss and Louisiana. After a win over App State, the Red Wolves had a .500 overall run at 6-6 through 12 games this season.

Matched up against App State on November 29, the Red Wolves traded punches the whole way. When the dust settled after a highly competitive game, Arkansas State had the 30-29 win in the end. QB Jaylen Raynor had a 32-of-47 line for 363 yards, three scores and a pick. Kenyon Clay carried 14 times for 52 yards and a touchdown of his own while Chauncy Cobb led the receivers on five catches for 117 yards. Corey Rucker added 10 catches for 90 yards and two touchdowns as well.

Missouri State Bears @ Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Trends: Bowl

Why the Arkansas State Red Wolves will win

• Arkansas State has won three of its last four games in December.
• Arkansas State has covered the spread in three of its last four games in December.

Why the Missouri State Bears will win

• The underdog has won five of Arkansas State’s last six Bowl games.
• Arkansas State has lost each of its last three games against non-conference opponents.
• The underdog has covered the spread in nine of Arkansas State’s last 10 games.
• Arkansas State has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games as a favorite in Texas.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of Arkansas State’s last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of Missouri State’s last five games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Arkansas State Red Wolves Player Prop Facts

• Heading into the bowl games, Chauncy Cobb has the most receptions without a receiving touchdown this season (69).

Missouri State Bears Player Prop Facts

• Jacob Clark has recorded 250+ passing yards in four consecutive games (including postseason) – equal-longest streak in the FBS, heading into the bowl games.

Matchup/League Facts

• Arkansas State ranks 117th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (-3.2).
• Arkansas State ranks 113th among FBS teams for yards allowed per game this season (414.8).
• Missouri State ranks 22nd among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (273.9).
• Missouri State ranks 114th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (117.9).

Missouri State vs Arkansas State Prediction

I’ll probably just stick with Missouri State. The Bears are scoring fairly well this year overall, averaging 25.4 points per game. Missouri State has 273.9 yards per game with 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions through the air, alongside 117.9 yards per game and 12 rushing touchdowns. The Bears have given up a truckload of points lately though: 83 combined over their last two games (both losses).

As for Arkansas State, they average 24.4 points per game with 257.2 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and 12 picks. On the ground the Red Wolves average 127.5 yards with 13 rushing scores. The Red Wolves have given up a healthy amount of points themselves over the last three games: 27 or more in each. This game could go a lot of different ways but it should be a solid matchup overall. I think it’s likely we’ll have a fairly high total in the end if both teams play to their capabilities.

Andrew Jett's Pick: Missouri State Bears +1.5