Mississippi State vs Southern Mississippi Prediction 8/30/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

The Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Southern Miss Golden Eagles meet in week 1 college football action from M.M. Roberts Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles prediction.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Team Preview

The Mississippi State Bulldogs come into the 2025 season looking to improve on a dismal 2-10 mark in 2024, the worst record for the Bulldogs in a season since 2003. The Bulldogs return quarterback Blake Shapen, who is hoping for a clean bill of health under center after getting injured part way through 2024, after transferring in from Baylor. In the backfield, Fluff Bothwell was quite the get from South Alabama and is expected to handle a major role at running back, giving the offense a proven option alongside Davin Booth, who led Mississippi State in rushing. On the line, Jacoby Jackson anchors the unit at left guard, while the rest of the group continues to develop around him. Defensively, safety Isaac Smith leads the secondary as a senior, bringing veteran leadership on the back end.

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs will win

• Southern Miss has lost each of its last 10 games.
• Mississippi State has won each of its last eight season openers.
• Mississippi State has covered the spread in each of its last four road games.
• Southern Miss has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four completed games against opponents from the Southeastern Conference.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles Team Preview

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles can only go up one would think in 2025 after going 1-11 in 2024 and 0-8 in Sun Belt conference play. Charles Huff comes over from Marshall, after taking the Herd to four straight bowls and also won the Sun Belt championship last year. Almost two dozen Herd players from last year followed Huff to Hattiesburg, including Braylon Braxton who threw for 19 TDs and just 2 INTs while also rushing for 610 yards and four scores. Elijah Metcalf can be a huge impact player if healthy after missing a lot of last season with injury. On defense, Chris Jones returns after logging 46 tackles in his freshman campaign, good enough to finish second on Southern Miss last year. Broadarius Lewis is back up front after leading the Golden Eagles with 8 TFLs and Jameer Lewis had 5 TFLs as well.

Why the Southern Miss Golden Eagles will win

• Mississippi State has lost each of its last seven road games.
• Southern Miss has won each of its last three home games against teams from Mississippi.
• Southern Miss has covered the spread in seven of its last eight home openers.
• Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of Mississippi State’s last nine games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Four of Southern Miss’ last five games against teams from Mississippi have gone OVER the total points line.

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles Prediction

I’m on the Golden Eagles and the points here. I think Hattiesburg is going to be rocking with an SEC team coming to town and while I do expect more from Mississippi State in 2025 after injuries derailed the plans last season, the fact is that Southern Miss has greatly improved as well and have a lot going for them here. Charles Huff did a fantastic job at Marshall with resurrecting that program and brought a third of the team with him here. I think Southern Miss could be live here. Give me Southern Miss and the points in this one.