Michigan vs Texas Prediction 12/31/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

The Michigan Wolverines and the Texas Longhorns meet Wednesday in Cheez-It Citrus Bowl college football action from Camping World Stadium in Orlando. Here’s a Michigan vs Texas prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Michigan vs Texas pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview

The Wolverines opened the season on a 4-2 run, taking wins over New Mexico, Central Michigan, Nebraska and Wisconsin in that time. After a five-game win streak over Washington, Michigan State, Purdue, Northwestern and Maryland, Michigan took their third loss of the season versus Ohio State. That would leave the Wolverines with a 9-3 overall record.

In the Ohio State game on November 29, the Wolverines gave up points in every quarter along the way to a 27-9 loss. QB Bryce Underwood was 8-of-18 for 63 yards and a pick, while Jordan Marshal had seven carries for 61 yards. Leading the receivers with three catches for 46 yards was Donaven McCulley.

Texas Longhorns Betting Preview

Over on the Texas side, they went a spotty 3-2 over their first five games with losses to Ohio State and Florida around wins over San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston. It’s been a 6-1 run since then however, with wins over Oklahoma, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Texas A&M. That makes for a 9-3 overall record across 12 games this year for the Longhorns.

Texas took on Texas A&M in their last appearance on November 28. The Longhorns came back from a first-half deficit with a 24-7 run in the second for a 27-17 victory. QB Arch Manning had 179 yards and a TD on 14-of-29 passing and Quintrevion Wisner led the rush with 19 carries for 155 yards. Jack Endries was tops in the receiving game with four grabs for 93 yards.

Michigan Wolverines @ Texas Longhorns Betting Trends: Bowl

Why the Texas Longhorns will win

• Texas has won six of its last seven games.
• Michigan has lost four of its last five games in Florida.
• Michigan has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games.

Why the Michigan Wolverines will win

• Michigan has won four of its last six games against top-15 AP-ranked teams at neutral venues.
• Texas has lost three of its last four games against non-conference opponents at neutral venues.
• The team ranked 14th in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games.
• Michigan has covered the spread in each of its last four games played at neutral venues.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Michigan’s last five games against AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of Texas’ last five games at neutral venues have gone UNDER the total points line.

Texas Longhorns Player Prop Facts

• Heading into the bowl games, Parker Livingstone ranks 15th amongst qualified players for Yards Per Reception (18.9) this season.

Michigan Wolverines Player Prop Facts

• Heading into the bowl games, Derrick Moore ranks T14th amongst FBS players for sacks (10.0) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Texas ranks 9th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+6.5).
• Texas ranks T9th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (36.0).
• Michigan ranks 14th among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game this season (101.8).
• Michigan ranks 14th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+4.9).

Michigan vs Texas Prediction

I’ll stick with Texas, but this should be a pretty good matchup regardless. The Longhorns had a nice defensive day against a great Texas A&M team in their last outing, giving up just 180 pass yards, 19 first downs and 4-of-14 on third downs alongside two picks. The offense was pretty rough on third downs (4-of-13) but did well rushing (218 yards). Texas has 27 or more points in each of their last four wins, with two of those coming against ranked squads.

As for Michigan, they couldn’t do much against an excellent Ohio State team in their last outing. The Wolverines put up just 163 yards with 3.9 yards per play, nine first downs and 1-of-9 on third downs. The defense was on the field for 40:01 of game time, giving up 419 yards, 22 first downs and 10-of-17 on third downs. Texas won’t be quite such a stout opponent, but they’ll still be a good challenge for the Wolverines. This will be a fun one.

Andrew Jett's Pick: Texas Longhorns -7.5