Michigan State vs Indiana Prediction 10/18/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

The Michigan State Spartans and Indiana Hoosiers meet Saturday in college football action at Memorial Stadium. Here’s a Michigan State vs Indiana Prediction. This article will include a Michigan State vs Indiana Pick.

Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview

The Michigan State Spartans lost to USC and Nebraska and plays Michigan next. The Michigan State Spartans have lost 3 straight games. Aidan Chiles is completing 61.3 percent of his passes for 1,019 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Nick Marsh and Omari Kelly have combined for 687 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, while Chrishon McCray has 9 receptions.

The Michigan State Spartans ground game is averaging 131.2 yards per contest, and Makhi Frazier leads the way with 383 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Michigan State is allowing 31.8 points and 369.2 yards per game. Jordan Hall leads the Michigan State Spartans with 45 tackles, Malik Spencer has 2 sacks and Armorion Smith has 1 interception.

Indiana Hoosiers Betting Preview

The Indiana Hoosiers beat Iowa and Oregon, and they play UCLA next. Indiana has won 6 straight games. Fernando Mendoza is completing 71.3 percent of his passes for 1,423 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. have combined for 999 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns, while E.J. Williams Jr. has 14 receptions.

The Indiana Hoosiers ground game is averaging 241.7 yards per contest, and Roman Hemby leads the way with 421 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Indiana is allowing 11.3 points and 229 yards per game. Louis Moore leads the Indiana Hoosiers with 38 tackles, Isaiah Jones has 4.5 sacks and Amare Ferrell has 3 interceptions.

Why the Indiana Hoosiers will win

• Indiana has won each of its last 12 home games.
• Michigan State has lost each of its last 11 games against top-5 AP-ranked teams.
• Michigan State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last eight games as an underdog against top-5 AP-ranked teams.
• Indiana has covered the spread in each of its last four October games as a favorite.
• Michigan State has lost the first half in each of its last five road games against conference opponents.

Why the Michigan State Spartans will win

• The road team has won each of the last five games between Michigan State and Indiana.
• The underdog has covered the spread in each of Michigan State’s last eight games.
• The team ranked 3rd in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Michigan State’s last seven road games against top-15 AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of Indiana’s last six home games against teams from Michigan have gone UNDER the total points line.

Indiana Hoosiers Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 8, Fernando Mendoza ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for passer rating (131.8) this season.

Michigan State Spartans Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 8, Aidan Chiles leads Michigan State for touchdowns (5) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Indiana has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 35+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
• Indiana has recorded the most home wins by a margin of 40+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
• Michigan State ranks T22nd among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (9.0).
• Michigan State ranks 111th among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (14.2).

Michigan State vs Indiana Prediction

Michigan State is a mess defensively and doesn’t have the playmakers on offense to scare anybody. On paper, Indiana should run away with this contest. However, this is a letdown spot for Indiana after just beating Oregon on the road. Michigan State has also covered its last 3 games as a double-digit underdog. While there’s a massive gap in talent, this just feels like a lot of points, and we’ve seen Sparty find ways to hang around this season. I’ll grab my free touchdowns.